The primary objective of ...

This paper continues the work started by Bolder and Streacute;liski (1999) and considers two alternative classes of models for extracting zero-coupon and forward rates from a set of observed Government of Canada bond and treasury-bill prices. The first class of term-structure estimation methods follows from work by Fisher, Nychka, and Zervos (1994), Anderson and Sleath (2001), and Waggoner (1997). This approach employs a B-spline basis for the space of cubic splines to fit observed coupon-bond prices - as a consequence, we call these the spline-based models. This approach includes a penalty in the generalized least-squares objective function - following from Waggoner (1997) - that imposes the desired level of smoothness into the term structure of interest rates. The second class of methods is called function-based and includes variations on the work of Li et al. (2001), which uses linear combinations of basis functions, defined over the entire term-to-maturity spectrum, to fit the discount function. This class of function-based models includes the model proposed by Svensson (1994). In addition to a comprehensive discussion of these models, the authors perform an extensive comparison of these models' performance in the Canadian marketplace.

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose two extensions of the classic yield curve model of Nelson and Siegel that are both theoretically rigorous and empirically successful. The first extension is the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model (DNS), while the second takes this dynamic version and makes it arbitrage-free (AFNS). Diebold and Rudebusch show how these two models are just slightly different implementations of a single unified approach to dynamic yield curve modeling and forecasting. They emphasize both descriptive and efficient-markets aspects, they pay special attention to the links between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals, and they show why DNS and AFNS are likely to remain of lasting appeal even as alternative arbitrage-free models are developed. Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting contains essential tools with enhanced utility for academics, central banks, governments, and industry.