China and the United States have entered a multifaceted cold war: trade, high tech, space, defense, environment and values as they jostle for influence throughout the world. This rivalry between the world's top two economic powers will likely dominate the decades to come and its outcome is uncertain. After the American century, this new century may indeed be China's, or it may not. With Joe Biden's election as president of the United States, we are certainly in for a change of leadership style. But in terms of substance, US policy towards China is likely to remain tough. How will Beijing react? What strengths and weaknesses does China have in this long struggle for supremacy against the United States? This book analyzes the different aspects of this disconcerting rivalry that has had, and will continue to have, an impact on our daily lives. The coronavirus pandemic has further exposed the failings of a monolithic Chinese system that does not tolerate freedom of expression but it has also, paradoxically, placed China in a position of strength against the United States.

China and the United States have entered a multifaceted cold war: trade, high tech, space, defense, environment and values as they jostle for influence throughout the world. This rivalry between the world's top two economic powers will likely dominate the decades to come and its outcome is uncertain. After the American century, this new century may indeed be China's, or it may not. With Joe Biden's election as president of the United States, we are certainly in for a change of leadership style. But in terms of substance, US policy towards China is likely to remain tough. How will Beijing react? What strengths and weaknesses does China have in this long struggle for supremacy against the United States? This book analyzes the different aspects of this disconcerting rivalry that has had, and will continue to have, an impact on our daily lives. The coronavirus pandemic has further exposed the failings of a monolithic Chinese system that does not tolerate freedom of expression but it has also, paradoxically, placed China in a position of strength against the United States.

NATIONAL BESTSELLER | NEW YORK TIMES NOTABLE BOOK OF THE YEAR. From an eminent international security scholar, an urgent examination of the conditions that could produce a catastrophic conflict between the United States and China—and how it might be prevented. China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap: when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one, violence is the likeliest result. Over the past five hundred years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times; war broke out in twelve. At the time of publication, an unstoppable China approached an immovable America, and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promised to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case was looking grim—it still is. A trade conflict, cyberattack, Korean crisis, or accident at sea could easily spark a major war. In Destined for War, eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison masterfully blends history and current events to explain the timeless machinery of Thucydides’s Trap—and to explore the painful steps that might prevent disaster today. SHORT-LISTED FOR THE 2018 LIONEL GELBER PRIZE NAMED A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR BY: FINANCIAL TIMES * THE TIMES (LONDON)* AMAZON “Allison is one of the keenest observers of international affairs around.” — President Joe Biden “[A] must-read book in both Washington and Beijing.” — Boston Globe “[Full of] wide-ranging, erudite case studies that span human history . . . [A] fine book.”— New York Times Book Review

Taiwan "is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers," warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history. In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. "The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence-without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan." "We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland." "If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios," the authors add, "they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress." But, they observe, "the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity. It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it." Proposing "a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years," the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan's status; work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. "The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president," the authors conclude.

As economic power diffuses across more countries and China becomes more dependent on the world economy, Chinese leaders are being forced to abandon their largely passive approach to global governance. This report analyzes China’s interests and behavior to evaluate both the recent history of its interactions with the postwar international order and possible future trajectories. It also draws implications from that analysis for future U.S. policy.

This research explores possible strategies that China might employ to outcompete the United States. The authors of this report aim to support U.S. planning, educate readers about Chinese strategy, and spur discussion on U.S.-China competition.