Fragile and conflict-affected states (FCS) have become an important focus of World Bank Group assistance in recent years as recognition of the linkages between fragility, conflict, violence, and poverty has grown. Addressing issues of recurring conflict and political violence and helping build legitimate and accountable state institutions are central to the Bank Group's poverty reduction mission. This evaluation assesses the relevance and effectiveness of World Bank Group country strategies and assistance programs to FCS. The operationalization of the World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development (2011 WDR) is also assessed, to see how the framework has been reflected in subsequent analytical work, country assistance strategies, and the assistance programs. The evaluation framework was derived from the concepts and priorities articulated in recent WDRs, policy papers, and progress reports issued by Bank Group management, to draw lessons from FCS. The framework is organized around the three major themes emerging from the 2011 WDR: building state capacity, building capacity of citizens, and promoting inclusive growth and jobs. The evaluation focuses on International Development Association (IDA)-only countries, which are deemed to have certain characteristics such as very low average income and no access to private finance, making them eligible for special finance tools and programs. As the benchmark for measuring results, Bank Group performance is evaluated in 33 fragile and conflict-affected states against that of 31 IDA-only countries that have never been on the FCS list. Six new country case studies; analyses of Bank Group portfolios; human resources and budget data; secondary analysis of IEG evaluations; background studies including those on aid flows, gender, private sector development, and jobs; and surveys of Bank Group staffs and stakeholders are also included in the evaluation.

Fragility, conflict, and violence are at the heart of the World Bank Group strategy to attain the twin goals of ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity. Establishment of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) as one of the cross-cutting solution areas under the Global Practice Vice Presidency reflects the high level of priority attached to this theme. The FCV cross-cutting solution area is expected to enhance a systematic and coordinated approach across the Bank Group. The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) of the World Bank Group contributed to this effort by undertaking an evaluation, World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States: an Independent Evaluation (IEG 2014). This report focused on assessing Bank Group activities in low income countries classified as fragile and conflict-affected. Recognizing the significant implications of conflict and violence to the attainment of the Bank Group s strategic goals the CODE agreed that the follow-up evaluation would capture the different nature of fragility and manifestations of violence in countries not on the World Bank Group list of fragile and conflict-affected situations. The CODE noted that such forms of fragility and violence could include IBRD and blend countries, small island states, fragility due to organized crime and violence, and fragility due to ethnic tensions. The proposed evaluation is intended to respond to this demand and to broaden the Bank Group s perspectives on addressing the development challenges arising from conflict and violence.

This edition of the biennial Poverty and Shared Prosperity report brings sobering news. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its associated economic crisis, compounded by the effects of armed conflict and climate change, are reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The fight to end poverty has suffered its worst setback in decades after more than 20 years of progress. The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, already at risk before the pandemic, is now beyond reach in the absence of swift, significant, and sustained action, and the objective of advancing shared prosperity—raising the incomes of the poorest 40 percent in each country—will be much more difficult. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune presents new estimates of COVID-19's impacts on global poverty and shared prosperity. Harnessing fresh data from frontline surveys and economic simulations, it shows that pandemic-related job losses and deprivation worldwide are hitting already poor and vulnerable people hard, while also shifting the profile of global poverty to include millions of 'new poor.' Original analysis included in the report shows that the new poor are more urban, better educated, and less likely to work in agriculture than those living in extreme poverty before COVID-19. It also gives new estimates of the impact of conflict and climate change, and how they overlap. These results are important for targeting policies to safeguard lives and livelihoods. It shows how some countries are acting to reverse the crisis, protect those most vulnerable, and promote a resilient recovery. These findings call for urgent action. If the global response fails the world's poorest and most vulnerable people now, the losses they have experienced to date will be minimal compared with what lies ahead. Success over the long term will require much more than stopping COVID-19. As efforts to curb the disease and its economic fallout intensify, the interrupted development agenda in low- and middle-income countries must be put back on track. Recovering from today's reversals of fortune requires tackling the economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 with a commitment proportional to the crisis itself. In doing so, countries can also plant the seeds for dealing with the long-term development challenges of promoting inclusive growth, capital accumulation, and risk prevention—particularly the risks of conflict and climate change.

This first report deals with some of the major development issues confronting the developing countries and explores the relationship of the major trends in the international economy to them. It is designed to help clarify some of the linkages between the international economy and domestic strategies in the developing countries against the background of growing interdependence and increasing complexity in the world economy. It assesses the prospects for progress in accelerating growth and alleviating poverty, and identifies some of the major policy issues which will affect these prospects.

Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.

Entrepreneurs can always find a way of making money in fragile states, but how do we get enough of them to generate the necessary jobs? This book finds that entrepreneurs in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) face special challanges and respond to different incentives.

The 2011 WDR on Conflict, Security and Development underlines the devastating impact of persistent conflict on a country or region's development prospects - noting that the 1.5 billion people living in conflict-affected areas are twice as likely to be in poverty. Its goal is to contribute concrete, practical suggestions on conflict and fragility.