After the initial boom in fiscal spending that accompanies a commodity boom, why do commodity- exporting countries tend to maintain higher spending levels despite a drop in commodity prices? Probably because of liquidity constraints and the costs of policy reversal.

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.

The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

The debt- overhang disincentive may not be as important as the broader problem of debtors' credit constraints in international capital markets. For severely indebted low- income countries, the best strategy is probably to replace nonconcessional debt with new concessional loans.

Sovereign wealth funds are a growing and dynamic force in international finance. The shifting international economic relations from capital rich states gives them new power in influencing the global agenda. Despite controlling trillions of dollars in the biggest companies in the world, little is known about the opaque funds of oil rich and non-democratic governments. This is the first book to compile a history of sovereign wealth funds recounting the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's involvement with the scandal-plagued BCCI bank and Chinese arms exports to Iran. By constructing a history within the proper context of oil driven surpluses and large inflationary pressures with no international investment framework, this book explains the development and growth of sovereign wealth funds. The economics of capital surplus countries and investment strategies are examined in order to better understand sovereign wealth fund creation and growth. In a straightforward and accessible style, the author examines the complex and amazing growth of an unknown group of investors controlling trillions of dollars worldwide.

This book investigates how African countries respond to socioeconomic shocks, drawing out lessons to help to inform future policy and development efforts. The challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic affected all sectors of the economy, exposing substantial structural weaknesses and complexities in supply chains and logistics across the African continent. This book examines the disruptive impact of the pandemic across Africa. However, it also goes beyond the current crisis to investigate how socioeconomic pressures in general impact commodity prices, national budgeting processes, food, business, energy sectors, education, health, and sanitation. Overall, the book presents evidence-based solutions and policy recommendations to enable readers to improve resilience and responses to future crises. The insights provided by this book will be of interest to policymakers and development agencies, as well as to researchers of global development, politics, economics, business, and African studies.