Modern crises bargaining involves a mix of overt and covert cross-domain signals states use to manage escalation and provide options that might help them advance their interests short of war. Unlike the Cold War in the twentieth century, this competition involves a new domain: cyberspace. Whether massive military and commercial espionage campaigns or international extortion rings and theft, the cyber domain offers an outlet for states to advance their interests. Does the resulting cyber competition create new escalation risks? Do cyber operations alter how states respond to international crises in a way that creates incentives for decision makers to cross the Rubicon and use military force to settle disputes? The answer is surprising: no. To date, cyber operations have tended to offer great powers escalatory offramps. This issue brief draws on new academic research, simulations, and survey experiments to study how cyber operations alter crisis decision-making during great power competition. Specifically, it analyzes escalation pathways and how the informed public and foreign policy actors conceptualize disruptive technologies and integrate them into larger competitive strategies. Based on the evidence, cyber operations offer a valuable escalatory offramp. Even states with more escalatory attitudes tend not to respond militarily to disputes when they have the option of imposing costs and signaling through cyberspace.

To what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? Scholars and practitioners have been concerned about cyber escalation for decades, but the question remains hotly debated. The issue is increasingly important for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities, and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan tackle this question head-on, presenting a comprehensive theory that explains the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. In doing so, they challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that cyberspace is not as dangerous as the conventional wisdom might suggest. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. To support their claims, Lonergan and Lonergan test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies, including strategic interactions between the United States and key rivals; a series of case studies of the role of cyber operations in international crises; and plausible future scenarios involving cyber operations during conflict. They then apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. By exploring the role of cyber operations in routine competition, crises, and warfighting, Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics.

"The chances are growing that the United States will find itself in a crisis in cyberspace, with the escalation of tensions associated with a major cyberattack, suspicions that one has taken place, or fears that it might do so soon. The genesis for this work was the broader issue of how the Air Force should integrate kinetic and nonkinetic operations. Central to this process was careful consideration of how escalation options and risks should be treated, which, in turn, demanded a broader consideration across the entire crisis-management spectrum. Such crises can be managed by taking steps to reduce the incentives for other states to step into crisis, by controlling the narrative, understanding the stability parameters of the crises, and trying to manage escalation if conflicts arise from crises."--P. [4] of cover.

"Tomorrow's wars will be fought not just with guns, but with the click of a mouse half a world away that will unleash weaponized software that could take out everything from the power grid to a chemical plant." -The Christian Science Monitor In 1982, a mysterious explosion happened in the far reaches of the Siberian tundra. The incident, a first of its kind, a nation state cyber-attack on a pipeline that caused catastrophic damage. Since that time, escalations of cyber warfare have escalated between many countries and their sponsored actors that have included major cybersecurity incidents such as Stuxnet and many attacks against corporations. But it hasn't stopped with nation state attacks. Cybercriminals have emerged from far corners of the globe to create havoc on individuals, corporations, and government entities. Cyber-crime and cyber-attacks seem to be a never-ending exploitation of technology weaknesses that are causing billions of dollars in losses and beginning to impact life or death situations. Cyberspace is a vast ecosystem of intertwined technologies that brings about noble causes, but hidden in dark corners of cyberspace is a criminal element, and at times in plain sight are military operations. The Coming Cyber War provides insight on the nuances of cyberspace, what executives, boards, and individuals can do to prepare, and what to expect next. _______ "I think every person, especially at the executive level, will find value in reading this book and many will find it astonishing. As Marc alludes to in the end, the challenges for CISOs are not going away and the future cyberwar might be already going on." -ALVIN MILLS, VP, Information Technology & Security, Texas Bankers Association _______ This book highlights cybersecurity practices executives and boards should be aware of and how to interact with their security leader whether a virtual CISO or a CISO on staff. It provides home users and small businesses practical awareness they should know to stay safe online and for their businesses to thrive. Cyberattacks are the norm today...happening in your home or business, right now. Be prepared. Read this book.

Why do nations break into one another's most important computer networks? There is an obvious answer: to steal valuable information or to attack. But this isn't the full story. This book draws on often-overlooked documents leaked by Edward Snowden, real-world case studies of cyber operations, and policymaker perspectives to show that intruding into other countries' networks has enormous defensive value as well. Two nations, neither of which seeks to harm the other but neither of which trusts the other, will often find it prudent to launch intrusions. This general problem, in which a nation's means of securing itself threatens the security of others and risks escalating tension, is a bedrock concept in international relations and is called the 'security dilemma'. This book shows not only that the security dilemma applies to cyber operations, but also that the particular characteristics of the digital domain mean that the effects are deeply pronounced. The cybersecurity dilemma is both a vital concern of modern statecraft and a means of accessibly understanding the essential components of cyber operations.

“We are dropping cyber bombs. We have never done that before.”—U.S. Defense Department official A new era of war fighting is emerging for the U.S. military. Hi-tech weapons have given way to hi tech in a number of instances recently: A computer virus is unleashed that destroys centrifuges in Iran, slowing that country’s attempt to build a nuclear weapon. ISIS, which has made the internet the backbone of its terror operations, finds its network-based command and control systems are overwhelmed in a cyber attack. A number of North Korean ballistic missiles fail on launch, reportedly because their systems were compromised by a cyber campaign. Offensive cyber operations like these have become important components of U.S. defense strategy and their role will grow larger. But just what offensive cyber weapons are and how they could be used remains clouded by secrecy. This new volume by Amy Zegart and Herb Lin is a groundbreaking discussion and exploration of cyber weapons with a focus on their strategic dimensions. It brings together many of the leading specialists in the field to provide new and incisive analysis of what former CIA director Michael Hayden has called “digital combat power” and how the United States should incorporate that power into its national security strategy.