Two empirical methods for rating susceptibility of mountain pine beetle attack in ponderosa pine were evaluated. The methods were compared to stand data modeled to objectively rate each sampled stand for susceptibly to bark-beetle attack. Data on bark-beetle attacks, from a survey of 45 sites throughout the Colorado Plateau, were modeled using logistic regression to estimate the probability of attack on individual trees from tree and stand variables. The logistic model allowed flexibility to easily scale results up to a stand level for comparison to the empirical methods. The empirical method, developed by Munson and Anhold, most closely correlated to the logistic regression results. However, the Munson/Anhold method rated all 45 study sites as either moderately or highly susceptible to bark-beetle attack, which raises concern about its lack of sensitivity. Future work on evaluating risk of bark-beetle impact should consider more than stand characteristics.

Mountain pine beetle-killed ponderosa pine trees in three stands of different stocking levels near Bear Mountain in the Black Hills National Forest were surveyed over a 5-year period to determine how long they persisted as unbroken snags. Rate of breakage varied during the first 5 years after MPB infestation: only one tree broke during the first 2 years in the three stands; breakage increased during the third year; the highest percentage of snags broke during the fourth year; and 10% to 14% broke in the fifth year. Cumulatively, snag breakage was 76%, 91%, and 95% in a GSL 80/90, GSL 100/110, and unmanaged stand, respectively. On average, 56% of the snags broke below 25 ft. The rate and height of breakage in mountain pine beetle-killed trees indicates that they are unlikely to persist as suitable snags for more than 5 to 10 years after infestation.