Border closures and other pandemic containment measures have kept Vanuatu free from COVID-19. However, they have dealt a heavy blow to economic activity as tourism has come to a virtual halt. On top of the pandemic, Tropical Cyclone Harold and a volcanic eruption in Tanna Island caused extensive economic damage in 2020. In the context of a continued loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) in the Pacific, Vanuatu also lost a key CBR at end-June 2021. Air Vanuatu, one of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is in the process of being restructured.

Four years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction is near completion with full recovery in sight. The authorities are now focused on implementing their broader development plans that were slowed by the rebuilding process, which will require fiscal discipline and reforms to maintain debt sustainability. The authorities should continue their constructive engagement with development partners for technical assistance, capacity development, and concessional and grant-based funding. In parallel continuing to reform and strengthen the governance of institutions and removing vulnerabilities to corruption will be important.

Nauru faces structural challenges due to its small size and remoteness, and is highly dependent on imports. The narrow revenue base comprises fishing license fees, residual phosphate processing, and revenue from the Regional Processing Center (RPC). Nauru is vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, as the population inhabit in a narrow coastal area. The health and economic impact of the pandemic has been limited in Nauru, thanks to successful vaccination and containment strategies

Swift implementation of containment measures, limited spillovers from tourism, and COVID-related fiscal spending financed by buoyant fishing revenues and donor grants have allowed Tuvalu—a fragile Pacific micro-state—avoid a recession in 2020. The economy is expected to expand by 2.5 percent in 2021, supported by fiscal expenditures and resumption of infrastructure projects. But significant challenges remain: Tuvalu is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, its economy is dominated by the public sector, and its revenue base is narrow. Uncertainty around donor commitments complicates fiscal planning.

Following a successful COVID-19 containment strategy, the border reopened in July 2022, and tourism is returning to Vanuatu. Economic activity is expected to be strong in the near term, with real GDP growing around 3.4 percent in 2023, as tourism and construction activities resume. High imported prices are likely to stoke inflation and push the current account into deficit, while fiscal policy will turn more expansionary. The Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) is facing significant challenges, with important implications for revenue and governance, while Air Vanuatu, the national airline, is facing serious operational and financial difficulties. Key structural vulnerabilities relating to climate change, limited infrastructure development capacity, and weak governance, persist.

Economic Impact of the Pandemic and Policy Responses. Mauritius has been successful in containing the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to strict health measures but the halt in tourism has significantly affected its tourism-dependent economy. A comprehensive set of stimulus measures to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic, including a wage subsidy and income support for the self-employed, have provided support to firms and households.

The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have put severe strains on the economy. The economic policy response has been strong and generally appropriate, helping counter the negative effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, as the international borders remain shut, the economic contraction is likely to deepen in FY2021. A slow recovery is expected for FY2022 driven by a gradual border reopening. The FSM is facing significant medium-term uncertainty, owing to the possible expiration of grants and other assistance provided under the Compact Agreement with the United States. The FSM is also highly vulnerable to climate change-induced natural disasters.