This book summarizes the constraints to and opportunities for deepening economic integration within the MENA region and beyond. Trade and investment reform are discussed together with physical connectivity, cross-border trade facilitation, infrastructure networks, and the vital role of logistics.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.

Over the past decade, four major developments in global economic integration have shaped trade policy and the economic performance of countries within the Middle East and North Africa region: the emergence of global supply chains, the growth of trade in services, the rise of China and India as major international trading powers, and regional integration. These developments, along with the labor and natural resource endowments of particular countries (some are resource-poor but labor-abundant, some resource-rich and labor-abundant, and some resource-rich and labor-importing), have influenced export diversification outcomes across the region. Yet these countries may not be taking full advantage of all of the opportunities the four new trends offer to them. 'Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa: Policies for Export Diversification' examines the region's trade policy agendas and their results by focusing on the countries' response to these four key developments in international trade. As the region recovers from the global financial and economic crises, the book identifies reforms that could allow countries to further strengthen global production networks, benefit more from trade in services, better compete in external markets to face the rise of China and India, and reach the full potential of regional integration. If thoroughly implemented, especially by oil exporters, all of these reforms could help boost growth and job creation in the region.

Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.

The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.

China and India's spectacular economic rise over the last two decades has accelerated their trade and investment flows with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), particularly with the oil-producing countries. And while these flows are still small, China and India's presence in the region is on the rise. This report focuses on the following questions: what have been evolution and the impact of MENA's trade and investment relations with China and India? what actions can be taken to maximize the benefits from these relations and to enhance MENA's international integration? The main findings indicate that the region as a whole has benefited from the rise of China and India in terms of better terms of trade, significant increases in oil and gas exports, and cheaper imports. However, producers of industrial goods have been negatively-and in a few cases severely-affected by competition with the two Asian countries in both third and domestic markets. While China and India are investing more in MENA, they are contributing very little to job creation or to the transfer and diffusion of technology. Faster growth in the two Asian countries-and the associated higher demand for energy-will increase revenues from oil and the difficult choices associated with their management. For the labor-abundant, non oil-producing countries, competition with China and India will increase. But the lack of competitive manufacturing industries and services, the insufficient attention given in the past to building technological capabilities and promoting openness and entrepreneurship are constraining their ability to respond to competition. They need to accelerate productivity to tackle unemployment, especially among youth. This may require the broader institutional changes seen in China and India-suggesting the importance of a pragmatic reform agenda that can accelerate productivity, trade, and investment in the region.

From American master Ward Just, returning to his trademark territory of "Forgetfulness "and "The Weather in Berlin," an evocative portrait of diplomacy and desire set against the backdrop of America's first lost war