We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

This paper applies a set of unit root and cointegration tests with non-linear error-correction mechanisms to a subset of the OECD countries to investigate the empirical conclusions of some of the labor market models in the literature. I generally find that the unemployment rate, productivity, and real wages have a unit root even if one controls for threshold effects. This finding justifies the use of a cointegration approach to assess the existence of a long-run equilibrium among the variables of interest. For roughly half of the OECD countries in the sample, the unemployment rate, real wages, and productivity trend together over time. For four countries (i.e, Germany, Japan, Sweden, and the US) the adjustment to the long run relationship appears mostly asymmetric. Also, an impulse response function analysis suggests that real wages and productivity adjust faster to the long-run equilibrium, while shocks to unemployment take longer to extinguish. Also, according to the sign of the shocks, the unemployment rates respond differently. These findings suggest that a proper analysis of the behavior of productivity, real wages, and unemployment should consider non-linear adjustment mechanisms to long-run equilibrium since a liner approach would be biased.

The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.

This book discusses unemployment and its relations to economic, political and social aspects. The first chapter studies the relationship of unemployment to the level of confidence that characterizes some macroeconomic relevant agents, such as consumers or investors. Chapter Two investigates the effects of productivity growth shocks on unemployment, both in the short run and in the medium - long run. Chapter Three reviews finite sample inference for unemployment-inflation tradeoff. Chapter Four focuses on understanding how the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and/or long-term labor market changes may have separately or jointly affected health among employed workers in 2010. Chapter Five evaluates the persistence of the unemployment rate in the following emerging European countries: Slovenia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Cyprus, Malta, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Chapter Six discusses the case of election results on the political aspects of unemployment. Chapter Seven studies the relationship between unemployment and the (individual) perceived levels of well-being, such as life satisfaction or happiness. Chapter Eight assesses the association between homelessness and survival in a population of unemployed individuals in one region of northern Poland. Chapter Nine studies the impact that educational level and vocational training programmes had on the labour market of semi-peripheral EU countries, using Greece as a case study. Chapter Ten estimates the effects of area unemployment rate on smoking and drinking in China.

Balancing theoretical insights with lessons drawn from the experience of many countries, Lindbeck examines employment and unemployment against the background of developed market economies during the past century.