Supply chains for nutritious (“protective”) foods in Africa south of the Sahara are often poorly developed, especially for perishable crops that are vulnerable to wastage. We used LSMS-ISA surveys and geographic information system (GIS) data to explore which factors predict production patterns of four protective food crops (pulses, nuts and seeds, vegetables, and fruits) relative to cereals and starchy roots and tubers (grouped under staples) in Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a focus on potential inter-ventions to improve production, trade, and consumption of these foods. Plot-level irrigation adoption is the strongest predictor of fruit and vegetable production, along with precipitation, suggesting that water availability is a major precondition for pro-ducing these protective foods. In contrast, pulses and nuts and seeds can be grown in drier and warmer conditions. Better market access is also associated with higher production of fruits and vegetables, but the association is weaker than that of water access. Investing in and expanding irrigation-especially small-scale irrigation-has strong poten-tial to yield high returns in East Africa, especially for poor households that cannot afford to invest in capital-intensive irrigation technologies. Irrigation investments may need to be complemented by investments in roads, rural elec-trification, and cold storage chains to promote efficiency of postharvest supply chains and reduce marketing costs.

Suboptimal diets are a major risk factor for avoidable death and disease in low- and middle-income countries. Evidence shows that some foods or food components (e.g., processed red meat, saturated fat, salt, sugar) significantly elevate the risk of noncommunicable diseases and mortality, while others protect health (e.g., vegetables, fruits, pulses, nuts/seeds, fish, whole grains—referred to in this document as “protective foods”). We used household surveys to compare dietary patterns in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda to the EAT-Lancet healthy reference diet and to quantify and explain consumption gaps for nutritious foods. Compared to the EAT-Lancet healthy reference diet, consumption gaps for pulses and nuts/seeds, vegetables, and fruits are large for both poor and rich consumers in rural and urban areas in the four countries studied, while consumption gaps for meat, fish, and eggs and dairy foods are much larger for lower income groups. Food expenditures of most households in these four countries are far too low to allow consumption of the healthy reference diet; animal-source foods and vegetables are the largest cost components of food expenditures, although quantities consumed of both food groups are much lower than the EAT-Lancet healthy reference diet. Income elasticities of demand for pulses and nuts/seeds and vegetables are often low or moderate, suggesting weak consumer preference for these foods, while income elasticities for fruits and animal-source foods are relatively high. Income growth alone will not solve dietary problems in East Africa; in addition to supply-side interventions to improve affordability, special interventions are required to increase consumer demand for underappreciated protective (nutritious) foods such as pulses and nuts/seeds and vegetables.

Poor dietary quality is a significant risk factor for stunting and micronutrient deficiencies among young children and globally one of the leading causes of premature death and disease (Arimond & Ruel, 2004; Forouzanfar et al., 2015). Dietary quality is typically proxied by diversity of the consumed diet. Foods with similar nutritional qualities are first grouped together and dietary diversity is measured by the number of different food groups consumed in a certain time interval. For example, the World Health Organization recommends that children 6-23 months consume at least from four food groups (out of seven) every day. Based on this metric, Ethiopian children in this age range consume one of the least diversified diets in sub-Saharan Africa (Hirvonen, 2016) with only 14 percent meeting the WHO recommendation (CSA & ICF, 2016). Recent analysis of the timing of growth faltering of young children suggests that poor complementary feeding practices, including poor dietary quality, is an important risk factor for stunting in Ethiopia (Hirvonen, Headey, Golan, & Hoddinott, 2019). The available evidence suggests that diets are monotonous also at the household level. For example, in 2011, the average Ethiopian household consumed only 42 kg of fruits and vegetables in a year per adult equivalent (Hassen Worku, Dereje, Minten, & Hirvonen, 2017) – far below the World Health Organization’s recommendation of 146 kg per year (Hall, Moore, Harper, & Lynch, 2009). This report is structured as follows. In the subsequent section we describe the data used in this report. In section 3, we assess the consumption of nutritious foods among vulnerable groups: young children and mothers. In section 4, we assess the production of nutritious foods in the region. In section 5, we study the availability of nutritious foods in rural markets. In section 6, we assess the affordability of nutritious foods in the region. Section 7 concludes and summarizes the findings.

Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the series of the number of undernourished in the world. Nevertheless, the revision confirms the trend reported in past editions: the number of people affected by hunger globally has been slowly on the rise since 2014. The report also shows that the burden of malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a challenge. There has been some progress for child stunting, low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding, but at a pace that is still too slow. Childhood overweight is not improving and adult obesity is on the rise in all regions. The report complements the usual assessment of food security and nutrition with projections of what the world may look like in 2030, if trends of the last decade continue. Projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report puts a spotlight on diet quality as a critical link between food security and nutrition. Meeting SDG 2 targets will only be possible if people have enough food to eat and if what they are eating is nutritious and affordable. The report also introduces new analysis of the cost and affordability of healthy diets around the world, by region and in different development contexts. It presents valuations of the health and climate-change costs associated with current food consumption patterns, as well as the potential cost savings if food consumption patterns were to shift towards healthy diets that include sustainability considerations. The report then concludes with a discussion of the policies and strategies to transform food systems to ensure affordable healthy diets, as part of the required efforts to end both hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.

In The Nigerian Rice Economy the authors assess three options for reducing this dependency - tariffs and other trade policies; increasing domestic rice production; and improving post-harvest rice processing and marketing - and identify improved production and post-harvest activities as the most promising. These options however, will require substantially increased public investments in a variety of areas, including research and development, basic infrastructure (for example, irrigation, feeder roads, and electricity), and rice milling technologies.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 provides an assessment of prospects for the coming decade of the agricultural commodity markets across 41 countries and 12 regions, including OECD countries and key agricultural producers, such as India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina.