Uganda experienced annual economic growth of 5.8 percent between 2009 and 2019 (UBOS 2020). While restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 and 2021 caused a slowdown in the economy, the country has largely been spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Uganda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for one-quarter of GDP and two-thirds of Uganda’s jobs. The agriculture sector also performed well in the 2009 to 2019 period, growing at 5.0 percent annually (UBOS 2020). Thanks to a positive terms of trade shock and an established trade surplus in agrifood products, this sector played an important role in weathering the 2022 and 2023 global commodity market shocks (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we examine Uganda’s economic growth and transformation trajectory, both historically and going forward. Rather than focusing on the role of primary agriculture, we examine how the country’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to that transformation process.

This paper assesses the structure of Rwanda’s current and evolving agrifood system and its contribu-tion to national development. The paper reiterates the point that Rwanda’s agrifood system stretches well beyond primary agriculture and creates jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. While off-farm components of Rwanda’s agrifood system have generally grown more rapidly than pri-mary agriculture in recent years, growth varies across value chains of the agrifood system in the stud-ied period. The growth diagnostic in this paper reveals that it is domestic markets that have driven the recent growth in Rwanda’s AFS other than exports. The paper’s forward-looking analysis assesses potentially differential impacts of value-chain develop-ment efforts on broad development outcomes. The analysis measures the synergies and trade-offs of value-chain development in the context of an inclusive agricultural transformation. Such analysis is conducted using the Rwanda Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – an adaption of IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model to the Rwandan context. The modeling results indicate that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving development goals and there are significant trade-offs among different development goals from pro-moting a specific value chain. The value chains that make a larger contribution to growth or job crea-tion are not necessarily effective in reducing poverty or improving dietary quality – for example, value chains for coffee and tea – while value chains that play an important role in improving dietary quality may contribute less to job creation – such as vegetables or fruits. While there is no single value chain that can achieve all development goals effectively, it is possible to select a diversified set of value chains that complement each other in achieving different development goals. This latter strategy is a more realistic approach to growth and development.

Rwanda has made remarkable economic progress during the past two decades, and its annual GDP growth rate reached more than 7 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (NISR 2021). The rapid economic growth has been pro-poor, and the poverty rate fell from 58.9 percent in 2000/01 to 38.2 percent in 2016/17 (NISR 2018). The country has also emerged as a leader among sub-Saharan African countries in promoting innovation, gender equality, and an enabling business environment for development. The government remains strongly committed to a set of ambitious development goals, as set forth in the 2017–2024 National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1) and the corresponding sector-level strategic plans. While the global COVID-19 pandemic had a severe adverse effect on the economy, causing negative GDP growth in 2020, the country rebounded quickly and registered more than 10 percent growth in 2021 (NISR 2022). The country was only minimally affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Looking forward, Rwanda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 6.7 percent in 2023 and 7.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting the economy is returning to its pre-pandemic high-growth trajectory.

Ethiopia stands out as one of the fastest growing African countries between 2009 and 2019, with an average annual GDP growth rate close to 10 percent (ESS 2020). The global COVID-19 pandemic coupled with an armed civil conflict that started in November 2020 and continued for two years caused a significant slowdown in economic growth during the 2020–2022 period. Ethiopia’s GDP growth is now projected to recover to 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), remaining well below the growth rates achieved in the pre-pandemic era. Agriculture remains an important sector in Ethiopia, accounting for one-third of GDP and two-thirds of jobs. The agriculture sector, like the broader economy, performed well prior to the pandemic and civil conflict, averaging 5.5 percent growth from 2009 to 2019 (ESS 2020), and played an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks during 2022–2023 (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Ethiopia’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

The Progress towards Sustainable Agriculture initiative (PROSA) is a framework that seeks to complement ongoing efforts on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and particularly indicator 2.4.1, to support country-level assessments using data already available at the national level. Making agriculture more sustainable – productive, environmentally friendly, resilient and profitable is fundamental, as agriculture remains the main source of livelihood for the majority of the world’s poor and hungry. The pathway towards sustainable agriculture must ensure increasing output, but also make more efficient use of increasingly scarce global resources, be resilient to and help mitigate climate change, and improve human well-being. This technical study examines the key factors driving changes in trends in the indicators of sustainable agriculture and provides decision-makers with insights into viable options for achieving this goal. The study identifies five key groups of drivers that most influence these indicators globally. The ways in which each driver affects the multiple dimensions of sustainability highlights the interconnections, synergies and trade-offs that must be managed in different global contexts to achieve agricultural sustainability. The analysis can help decision-makers operating in different country contexts to identify practical solutions to ensure that their interventions contribute positively to a more sustainable agriculture.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerability of agrifood systems to shocks and stresses and led to increased global food insecurity and malnutrition. Action is needed to make agrifood systems more resilient, efficient, sustainable and inclusive. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021 presents country-level indicators of the resilience of agrifood systems. The indicators measure the robustness of primary production and food availability, as well as physical and economic access to food. They can thus help assess the capacity of national agrifood systems to absorb shocks and stresses, a key aspect of resilience. The report analyses the vulnerabilities of food supply chains and how rural households cope with risks and shocks. It discusses options to minimize trade-offs that building resilience may have with efficiency and inclusivity. The aim is to offer guidance on policies to enhance food supply chain resilience, support livelihoods in the agrifood system and, in the face of disruption, ensure sustainable access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to all.