Tropical Extremes: Natural Variability and Trends features the most up-to-date information on present and future trends related to climate change and tropical extremes. Including contributions from the foremost experts in the field, this important reference addresses the science behind climate change and natural variability in relation to tropical extremes. The book also includes practical insight into modeling and observation approaches. In a warming world, the increase of weather extremes presents a scientifically complex and societally relevant challenge. The book confronts these challenges with observational evidence, modeling studies and expected impacts. This is an essential reference for researchers, modelers and students in the fields of climate and atmospheric science looking to better understand the causes and effects of tropical extremes and natural variability. - Illuminates the role of natural variability and climate change in determining the fate and state of tropical extremes - Offers a robust guide for analysis relating to the impacts of extremes, thus providing a potential roadmap for navigating the future of risk analysis and the water-food-energy nexus - Edited by a diverse team of global experts - Includes contributions from leading researchers in the field, comprising the most up-to-date understanding of tropical extremes

This upper-undergraduate/graduate-level textbook introduces students to large-scale tropical climate circulation and its variations, covering their fundamental aspects and our current understanding of how they are impacted in a warming world. From this volume, readers will gain an understanding of tropical climate variability from the meso- to planetary scale. Uniquely, equal emphasis is placed on atmospheric and oceanic processes of tropical phenomena. The book will appeal to senior undergraduate and graduate students across geoscience disciplines, including in meteorology, oceanography, geography, hydrology, and environmental science.

A practical manual for training and reference use of USAF weather forecasters who will work in the tropics, it covers basic facts of climatology, circulation, synoptic models, analysis and forecasting, application throughout the tropics. A broad survey is made of the literature, evaluated in light of the experience of the author. Physical factors controlling tropical circulations are briefly discussed. The data sources for synoptic purposes are reviewed. Climatology of pressure, winds, temperature, humidity, clouds, rainfall and disturbances is presented in a form specially suitable for forecasters. Analysis and for forecasting of disturbances, cyclones, severe weather, terminal weather, etc., are treated at length. Emphasis is placed on uses of climatology and satellite cloud photos. Over 230 figures adapted from the literature or prepared by the author serve to illustrate all the essential facts and principles discussed. A summary of the state of art and future outlook of tropical meteorology is included.

The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.

A comprehensive, integrated view of the behaviour of the tropical hydrological cycle under various ecological, geographical and climatological conditions. The book also examines the problems of water management in relation to agriculture and civil engineering.