This proposed study examines the potential use of satellite passive microwave rainfall measurements derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) radiometers onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) constellation to improve eastern North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone intensity change forecasting techniques. Relationships between parameters obtained from an operational SSM/I-based rainfall measuring algorithm and 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 60- and 72-hour intensity changes from best track data records are examined in an effort to identify statistically significant predictors of intensity change. Correlations between rainfall parameters and intensity change are analyzed using tropical cyclone data from three years, 1992 to 1994. Stratifications based upon tropical cyclone intensity, rate of intensity change, climatology, translation, landfall and synoptic-scale environmental forcing variables are studied to understand factors that may affect a statistical relationship between rainfall parameters and intensity change. The predictive skill of statistically significant rainfall parameters is assessed by using independent tropical cyclone data from another year, 1995. In addition, case studies on individual tropical cyclones are conducted to gain insight on predictive performance and operational implementation issues.

Sixteen years of typhoon data were studied, in an effort to develop a technique for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity changes in the Northwestern Pacific. The data base provided average changes for 24 and 48 hour periods along with the average duration of each phase (intensifying and dissipating). Further study revealed that the upper-level outflow patterns provide a means to adjust these average changes so a more realistic forecast could be generated for the individual storms. Forecasts were further improved by studying how land and other environmental features effect the life cycle of tropical cyclones. Results from the research were compiled and incorporated into a series of flow charts. These charts were created to enable individuals to quickly determine future intensities of cyclones given the storm's history and a current satellite picture. (emk).

This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region.