Kenya experienced significant economic development in the 2009 to 2019 period. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an annual average of 5 percent (KNBS 2022). This exceeded population growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates; more importantly, for the first time in at least three decades, the country experienced a decline in the absolute number of poor people (World Bank 2022). While the global COVID-19 pandemic caused negative economic growth in 2020, the economy recovered quickly in 2021. Kenya was also largely spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Kenya’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0 percent in 2023 and 5.3 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for about one-quarter of GDP and nearly half of Kenya’s employment. It has thus played an important role in economic development. The sector has grown alongside the rest of the economy despite many challenges including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), declines in farm size (Jayne et al. 2016), and limited access to farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand how Kenya’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

This analysis is composed of two parts. The evolving structure of Kenya’s agrifood system (AFS) and its contribution to national development is assessed using a series of Social Accounting Matrixes (SAMs) for Kenya for the period 2009–2019. Economic performance is also assessed at subsector level to better understand the contributions of different agrifood value chains to Kenya’s development and economic transformation in recent years. The analysis reveals that the effects of AFS transformation stretches well beyond primary agriculture, creating jobs and income opportunities throughout the economy. In fact, the off-farm components of the AFS have grown more rapidly than primary agriculture, although differences in market structure and internationally tradable status contributed to varied patterns of growth across value chains. The analysis further reveals that it is the domestic market, not exports, that has driven the recent growth in Kenya’s AFS. Rapid urbanization and increased income generating opportunities in the rural nonfarm sector are causing dietary patterns to shift, which will continue to shape the transformation of the AFS in Kenya. A forward-looking analysis using IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model – an economywide modeling framework – assesses the potential impacts of future value chain growth on development outcome indicators. The findings reveal that value chains differ considerably in their effectiveness in achieving various development outcomes. Promoting only one value chain may also result in trade-offs across these development goals. For example, the coffee and tea value chains are highly effective at raising off-farm employment in the AFS, but they have weak impacts on diet quality. Likewise, cattle and dairy have strong off-farm GDP effects within the AFS, but are relatively ineffective at reducing poverty. By promoting and investing in several value chains simultaneously, policymakers can leverage synergies and mitigate trade-offs across development outcomes associated with specific value chains. The RIAPA analysis here suggests that joint promotion of the pulses and oilseeds, fruits and nuts, and cattle and dairy value chains will be most effective at impacting the full spectrum of development outcomes tracked in the model, including poverty, growth, jobs, and diets. However, the final value chain selection may change depending on the importance policymakers attach to the respective development outcomes.

Uganda experienced annual economic growth of 5.8 percent between 2009 and 2019 (UBOS 2020). While restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 and 2021 caused a slowdown in the economy, the country has largely been spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Uganda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for one-quarter of GDP and two-thirds of Uganda’s jobs. The agriculture sector also performed well in the 2009 to 2019 period, growing at 5.0 percent annually (UBOS 2020). Thanks to a positive terms of trade shock and an established trade surplus in agrifood products, this sector played an important role in weathering the 2022 and 2023 global commodity market shocks (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we examine Uganda’s economic growth and transformation trajectory, both historically and going forward. Rather than focusing on the role of primary agriculture, we examine how the country’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to that transformation process.

Mozambique was one of the fastest-growing countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2009 and 2014, with annual growth averaging about 7 percent (INE 2020; World Bank 2023a). However, adverse economic circumstances resulted in a significant weakening of economic growth, which averaged only 4.6 percent over the period 2014 to 2019 (INE 2020; World Bank 2023a). Restrictive COVID-19 policy measures introduced in 2020 further stifled the economy, resulting in negative growth in 2020 and low growth in 2021. Like many other countries, Mozambique was adversely affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the onset of Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Mozambique’s growth is expected to recover in the coming years, with projections of 5.0 percent growth in 2023 and 8.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b), suggesting the economy is inching back toward its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.

Mali experienced modest annual economic growth of 4.4 percent between 2009 and 2019 (INSTAT 2020; World Bank 2023a). With annual population growth of 3.0 percent during that period, the living standards of Malian people improved only modestly. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth, while an increase in armed insurgencies by domestic terrorist groups also had an adverse effect on the economy. Mali’s GDP growth is projected to reach 4.0 percent in 2023 and 2024 (World Bank 2023b), suggesting the economy is inching back toward its prepandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for 40 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of employment in Mali. In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Mali.

Rwanda has made remarkable economic progress during the past two decades, and its annual GDP growth rate reached more than 7 percent during the 2009 to 2019 period (NISR 2021). The rapid economic growth has been pro-poor, and the poverty rate fell from 58.9 percent in 2000/01 to 38.2 percent in 2016/17 (NISR 2018). The country has also emerged as a leader among sub-Saharan African countries in promoting innovation, gender equality, and an enabling business environment for development. The government remains strongly committed to a set of ambitious development goals, as set forth in the 2017–2024 National Strategy for Transformation (NST 1) and the corresponding sector-level strategic plans. While the global COVID-19 pandemic had a severe adverse effect on the economy, causing negative GDP growth in 2020, the country rebounded quickly and registered more than 10 percent growth in 2021 (NISR 2022). The country was only minimally affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Looking forward, Rwanda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 6.7 percent in 2023 and 7.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting the economy is returning to its pre-pandemic high-growth trajectory.

Agriculture in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is dominated by subsistence farming. Households grow food mainly for their own consumption and sell only when they have a surplus. The main crops are cassava, maize, yams, plantains, and rice (FAO 2019). Commercial farming of cash crops such as coffee, palm oil, rubber, and sugar is done on a smaller scale. With constant political instability, infrastructure deficiencies, and lack of investment in DRC, the expansion and productivity of commercial farming have been constrained (World Bank 2020). Livestock and fisheries are also important agrifood subsectors and face constraints similar to the crop subsectors. Despite these challenges, DRC possesses robust agricultural potential due to its vast arable land resources, abundant water resources, and its diverse climatic conditions, which are suitable for a wide variety of crops. There is also potential for further development of the fisheries sector due to the country’s extensive river system and large lakes. In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand the recent performance of DRC’s broader agrifood system (AFS) and how it is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.