Conventional tests for food market integration ask, often misleadingly, whether prices in different markets move together. In this paper an alternative methodology, the parity bounds model (PBM) is developed which uses information on transfer costs in addition to food prices to access the efficiency of spatial arbitrage. Monte Carlo experiments using data generated by a point-space spatial price equilibrium model show the PBM to be statistically reliable. An application to Philippine rice markets demonstrates that the PBM detects efficient arbitrage when other tests do not.

Maize is the staple food and principal cash crop in Mozambique. Production is dominated by small-holders who sell their surpluses to generate income. Southern Mozambique is a maize deficit region while the North is in surplus, therefore trade between these two areas has implications for food security in the country and is expected to accelerate economic development. This study attempts to measure the extent of market integration between major maize markets in Mozambique. }The study is organised into six chapters. Chapter One presents findings of the investigation into the dynamics and operation of informal maize markets in Mozambique. Chapter Two presents a brief overview of the methods used in the analysis of market integration and gives a review of international studies and studies specific to Mozambique on market integration. Chapter Three reviews agricultural policies in Mozambique and provides an overview of the maize markets in Mozambique. The methodology applied in the study in discussed in Chapter Four while Chapter Five presents a discussion of results from the econometric analysis. In conclusion, Chapter six provides a summary of the results of the market survey and on the basis of the econometric analysis forwards recommendations.

Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Analiza la integración de los mercados de diferentes productos (café, trigo, carbón, algodón, patrón oro), y en su globalidad, en la Edad moderna y en la contemporánea.

This book argues that the viability of many observed market and non-market interventions in agricultural products worldwide depends considerably on the underlying behaviour of the relevant commodity markets. Many of these policies have had distortive impacts, resulting in much discussion and controversy in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations.