To better understand the likely impacts for Latin America and the Caribbean of developments in global trade, we modeled a set of four scenarios to see how escalating trade tensions would affect the region’s economies and the potential for a regional response to mitigate possible negative impacts. This article reviews the results of that modeling exercise.

This edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean covers 2018 and is divided into three chapters. Chapter I analyses the impact of divergent global growth and trade tensions on trade in the region. Chapter II examines the share of Latin America and the Caribbean in global trade in minerals and metals. The region overall is a net exporter in this sector; however, given the typically low level of processing of its exports, it has the largest share in this category of primary products of all regions in the world. Finally, Chapter III examines whether cross-border e-commerce has the potential to galvanize and diversify exports from the region. Cross-border e-commerce refers to transactions for products and services that are ordered online, platform-enabled, or delivered online.

Latin American and Caribbean Trade Agreements: Keys to a Prosperous Community of the Americas is the essential reference guide for companies trading with Latin America and the Caribbean or wishing to use a country in the region as an export platform. This work fills the void in academic texts that are used to teach courses on economic integration in the Western Hemisphere. It provides a road map for the Obama Administration to launch an ambitious project designed to encourage economic growth, promote energy security, and reduce harmful greenhouse gas emissions, while at the same time realistically meeting the development needs of Latin America and the Caribbean. Latin American and Caribbean Trade Agreements: Keys to a Prosperous Community of the Americas posits that the myopic focus of past United States administrations on free markets to spur economic development in the Western Hemisphere is not enough. A bolder and more ambitious project that also seeks to redress many of the deep-seated problems that have long plagued the region is required. The Community of the Americas proposed in this book rests upon the important work that has already been done at the sub-regional level in terms of economic and political reform, identifying infrastructure and human capital needs, and regulating migration. It provides a new and cohesive vision for U.S. policy in Latin America and the Caribbean.

This edition of International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean covers 2019 and is divided into three chapters. Chapter I analyses the impact of divergent global growth and trade tensions on trade in the region. Chapter II examines the share of Latin America and the Caribbean in global trade in minerals and metals. The region overall is a net exporter in this sector; however, given the typically low level of processing of its exports, it has the largest share in this category of primary products of all regions in the world. Finally, Chapter III examines whether cross-border e-commerce has the potential to galvanize and diversify exports from the region. Cross-border e-commerce refers to transactions for products and services that are ordered online, platform-enabled, or delivered online.

This study analyzes composition of goods trade in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) along four main dimensions: revealed comparative advantage, product complexity, sophistication, and diversification. After describing some key trade patterns over the last half century, it compares the findings for LAC with other regions. Second, the study investigates how infrastructure quality, education, and tariff levels affect export composition. Third, using an approach based on product proximity, it aims to predict changes in LAC’s future composition of exports. The study concludes that policies to upgrade human capital and infrastructure are essential for increasing LAC’s export share in high-skill products.

We revisit the relationship between international trade, economic growth and inequality with a focus on Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper combines two approaches: First, we employ a cross-country panel framework to analyze the macroeconomic effects of international trade on economic growth and inequality considering the strength of trade connections as well as characteristics of countries’ export markets and products. Second, we consider event studies of past episodes of trade liberalization to extract general lessons on the impact of trade liberalization on economic growth and its structure and inequality. Both approaches consistently point to two broad messages: First, trade openness and connectivity to the center of the trade network has substantial macroeconomic benefits. Second, we do not find a statistically significant or economically sizable direct impact of trade on overall income inequality.

This cluster report takes stock of and explores opportunities for trade integration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Drawing on a set of 12 analytical studies that will be issued as working papers, the report examines the determinants of trade, explores the potential to enhance LAC’s trade integration, and assesses the associated economic and social effects. To deepen understanding of the region’s policy options and trade strategies, the report also incorporates the views of LAC country authorities based on responses to a survey. This provides an opportunity to examine the alignment of recommendations based on the analytical findings with the region’s current trade policy priorities, with the caveat that the survey was conducted between late 2015 and mid-2016, prior to the most recent developments in the global trade landscape.