This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.

From American master Ward Just, returning to his trademark territory of "Forgetfulness "and "The Weather in Berlin," an evocative portrait of diplomacy and desire set against the backdrop of America's first lost war

Though globalization has removed commercial walls between countries and implemented new international trade policies, trade barriers still exist. Due to the various political barriers surrounding other countries, the future of world trade has become uncertain. Understanding these barriers and their implications is imperative to implementing successful foreign trade policies. International Trade Policies in the Era of Globalization provides relevant theoretical frameworks and the latest empirical research findings on international trade and improves the understanding of the strategic role of trade policies and their importance in the global economy. The content within this publication contains reports on global trade, trade wars, and foreign policy. This research is designed for policymakers, government officials, economists, business professionals, researchers, and international business students.

Trade flows and trade policies need to be properly quantified to describe, compare, or follow the evolution of policies between sectors or countries or over time. This is essential to ensure that policy choices are made with an appropriate knowledge of the real conditions. This practical guide introduces the main techniques of trade and trade policy data analysis. It shows how to develop the main indexes used to analyze trade flows, tariff structures, and non-tariff measures. It presents the databases needed to construct these indexes as well as the challenges faced in collecting and processing these data, such as measurement errors or aggregation bias. Written by experts with practical experience in the field, A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis has been developed to contribute to enhance developing countries' capacity to analyze and implement trade policy. It offers a hands-on introduction on how to estimate the distributional effects of trade policies on welfare, in particular on inequality and poverty. The guide is aimed at government experts engaged in trade negotiations, as well as students and researchers involved in trade-related study or research. An accompanying DVD contains data sets and program command files required for the exercises. Copublished by the WTO and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents, extends, and applies pioneering work in macroeconomics and stimulates work by macroeconomists on important policy issues. Each paper in the Annual is followed by comments and discussion.

This collection of essays offers critical perspectives on current issues in the international economy. Divided into four parts, U.S. Trade Policy and Global Growth discusses managed trade and international interdependence, the effect of trade on domestic wages and employment, the costs and benefits of trade protection, and likely effects of NAFTA. The collection also addresses the U.S. trade deficit and presents a Keynesian proposal for international monetary reform. Part IV focuses on issues facing developing countries in the areas of trade, industrial, and financial policy. Rejecting the dogma that pure free-market policies should be accepted as articles of religious faith, in either international trade or domestic policy, the contributors search for trade and macro policies that can achieve balanced growth with high employment and an equitable distribution of income in both the United States and the rest of the world.