The rapid development of Pacific Asia over the past twenty years offers an excellent opportunity to analyze the dynamics of economic growth. Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia explores the nature and causes of changes that have occurred in the economic structure of Pacific Asia, the relationship between these changes and economic growth, and the implications of these changes for trading relationships. Themes in the research reported here includes the sectoral composition of output and trade; rates of structural change in production and exports and their relation to economic growth; the effect of abundant resource endowments on industrialization and manufactured exports; the nature of the mix between active government policies and market forces; and the balance between demand-determined and supply-determined industrialization and exports. Many of the issues explored have important implications for United States foreign economic policy, and the volume includes a look at the basic economic and political forces influencing shifts in United States trade policy in the postwar period. A timely and informative analysis, the volume probes the causes and consequences of economic growth in Pacific Asia, focusing on the interaction of exports of manufactured goods and the developmental process. The results reported contribute to ongoing research in structural change and economic policy and will be important to economists working on empirical patters in international trade and the process of economic development.

Simon Kuznets’ views about the inverted-U relationship between inequality and development and the process of structural transformation have long been under the lens of researchers. Over the last 20 years, immense potential for growth in Asia has been facilitated by structural transformation. However, it remains undecided whether the contribution of structural transformation will stay as a crucial factor in determining potential productivity growth and income distribution. This book brings together novel conceptual frameworks and empirical evidence from country case studies on topics related to structural transformation, globalization, and income inequality.

'Inclusive Growth, Full Employment, and Structural Change: Implications and Policies for Developing Asia' discusses policies to achieve inclusive growth in developing Asia, including agriculture, investment, certain state interventions, monetary, fiscal, and the role of the state as employer of last resort. Felipe argues that full employment of the labor force is the key to delivering inclusive growth. Full employment is the most direct way to improve the well-being of the people, especially of the most disadvantaged. Since unemployment and underemployment are pervasive in many parts of the region, Asian leaders must commit to the goal of full employment. The book also analyzes the region's phenomenal growth in recent decades in terms of structural transformation. Accelerating it is vital for the continued growth of developing Asia. But efforts to achieve full employment might be held back given that structural transformation requires massive labor shifts across sectors, and these are difficult to coordinate. Moreover, the goal of full employment was abandoned in the 1970s, and governments and central banks have since concentrated on keeping inflation low.

This volume investigates the links between employment, trade and structural transformation. In the context of global rebalancing, accompanied by inevitable changes in trade patterns between Asia and the rest of the world, the volume's chapters analyze the links between trade openness and trends in employment and its quality. Specifically, through Asian case studies (both analytical and econometric), the volume examines how trade and export-led growth models have led to specialization and evolving demands on various types of labor. The rapidly changing labor market contours in developing Asia during this era of globalization, along with the new context resulting from the recent global financial crisis and new insights from theoretical literature, have led to the need for such studies. This volume helps fill this gap in the literature.

China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.

The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.