This Element develops an explanation of how and why all public policy preferences move over time.

A central question in political representation is whether government responds to the people. To understand that, we need to know what the government is doing, and what the people think of it. We seek to understand a key question necessary to answer those bigger questions: How does American public opinion move over time? We posit three patterns of change over time in public opinion, depending on the type of issue. Issues on which the two parties regularly disagree provide clear partisan cues to the public. For these party-cue issues we present a slight variation on the thermostatic theory from (Soroka and Wlezien (2010); Wlezien (1995)); our “implied thermostatic model.” A smaller number of issues divide the public along lines unrelated to partisanship, and so partisan control of government provides no relevant clue. Finally, we note a small but important class of issues which capture response to cultural shifts.

This book introduces and reviews recent advances in the field in a comprehensive and non-technical way by focusing on the potential of emerging citizen-science and social-computation frameworks, coupled with the latest theoretical and modeling tools developed by physicists, mathematicians, computer and social scientists to analyse, interpret and visualize complex data sets. There is overwhelming evidence that the current organisation of our economies and societies is seriously damaging biological ecosystems and human living conditions in the short term, with potentially catastrophic effects in the long term. The need to re-organise the daily activities with the greatest impact – energy consumption, transport, housing – towards a more efficient and sustainable development model has recently been raised in the public debate on several global, environmental issues. Above all, this requires the mismatch between global, societal and individual needs to be addressed. Recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) can trigger important transitions at the individual and collective level to achieve this aim. Based on the findings of the collaborative research network EveryAware the following developments among the emerging ICT technologies are discussed in depth in this volume: • Participatory sensing – where ICT development is pushed to the level where it can support informed action at the hyperlocal scale, providing capabilities for environmental monitoring, data aggregation and mining, as well as information presentation and sharing. • Web gaming, social computing and internet-mediated collaboration – where the Web will continue to acquire the status of an infrastructure for social computing, allowing users’ cognitive abilities to be coordinated in online communities, and steering the collective action towards predefined goals. • Collective awareness and decision-making – where the access to both personal and community data, collected by users, processed with suitable analysis tools, and re-presented in an appropriate format by usable communication interfaces leads to a bottom-up development of collective social strategies.

This book uses rigorous mathematical analysis to advance opinion dynamics models for social networks in three major directions. First, a novel model is proposed to capture how a discrepancy between an individual’s private and expressed opinions can develop due to social pressures that arise in group situations or through extremists deliberately shaping public opinion. Detailed theoretical analysis of the final opinion distribution is followed by use of the model to study Asch’s seminal experiments on conformity, and the phenomenon of pluralistic ignorance. Second, the DeGroot-Friedkin model for evolution of an individual’s social power (self-confidence) is developed in a number of directions. The key result establishes that an individual’s initial social power is forgotten exponentially fast, even when the network changes over time; eventually, an individual’s social power depends only on the (changing) network structure. Last, a model for the simultaneous discussion of multiple logically interdependent topics is proposed. To ensure that a consensus across the opinions of all individuals is achieved, it turns out that the interpersonal interactions must be weaker than an individual’s introspective cognitive process for establishing logical consistency among the topics. Otherwise, the individual may experience cognitive overload and the opinion system becomes unstable. Conclusions of interest to control engineers, social scientists, and researchers from other relevant disciplines are discussed throughout the thesis with support from both social science and control literature.

Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations. Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science. Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.

This 1992 book explains how people acquire political information from elites and the mass media and convert it into political preferences.

This book presents the latest research into CSS methods, uses, and results, as presented at the 2019 annual conference of the CSSSA. This conference was held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, October 24 – 27, 2019, at the Drury Plaza Hotel. What follows is a diverse representation of new results and approaches for using the tools of CSS and agent-based modeling (ABM) for exploring complex phenomena across many different domains. Readers will therefore not only have the results of these specific projects on which to build, but will also gain a greater appreciation for the broad scope of CSS, and have a wealth of case-study examples that can serve as meaningful exemplars for new research projects and activities. The Computational Social Science Society of the Americas (CSSSA) is a professional society that aims to advance the field of CSS in all its areas, from fundamental principles to real-world applications, by holding conferences and workshops, promoting standards of scientific excellence in research and teaching, and publishing novel research findings.