'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

The Stock Market is Predictable: Exploit Proven Seasonal Patterns for Higher Returns details steps an investor can take in order to take advantage of predictable patterns. These patterns are proven by academic research through many published studies. Over one hundred years of historical data collected by the oldest and most trusted stock trading almanac support the fact that predictable seasonal patterns exist in the stock market. The book describes how to use four simple and easy-to-understand steps at two strategic periods in the calendar to profit from proven seasonal patterns when stock prices rise and when prices fall. By modifying a simple investing technique, positive returns from the stock market will be achieved 70-80% of the time over a sustained investing period. Learn the simple steps and when to use them to earn greater returns on your investments.

I provide a fresh and potentially controversial perspective. I argue that stock markets have a certain outcome but an unpredictable pattern. Collective awareness determines what the future performance of a security or market will be but the circumstances leading to this outcome are untraceable as there are infinite possibilities. Previous research is unanimous in believing that stock prices in efficient markets hover around their fundamental value which is represented but the present value of all future cash flows. I argue instead that stock prices are simply a reflection of previous thoughts. These thoughts come from the certain investors who mentally guide the market. In other words stock prices have nothing to do with the future but are completely related to the past. I also argue that most stocks are perfectly correlated to each other and that it is possible to obtain high gains consistently. Finally I argue that by simply redefining risk the market may not be as risky as it appears sometimes.

Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.

A fresh perspective on predicting the market The experience of Wall Street investment manager and analyst Michael McDonald offers a new perspective on how to navigate the turbulent ups and downs of the markets. His innovative approach to the stock market teaches investors how to use new investment strategies intended to replace the "buy and hold forever" strategies of yesterday. McDonald discusses what a "trading range" market is-a roller-coaster ride in which the market will neither gain nor lose much ground-and guides readers through this market with his proven investment strategies. This book provides an understandable way to make sense of the unpredictable stock market, taking into account more complex theories, including chaos and contrarian approaches. Along with his expert advice, McDonald presents four investing paradoxes that will help investors make smarter decisions now and predict where the market is heading, using his proven theories.

A pioneering classic in Dow Theory. "If you are a serious student of investing, you owe it to yourself to 'go back to the future' and read this book." --Charles B. Carlson, Editor of "Dow Theory Forecast". The Dow Theory is consistently one of the best strategies for understanding and predicting the stock market, and when it is applied as a method of predictable forecast, it is known as the "barometer." This finance classic offers tips and trends that William Hamilton observed over the years in the market, offering a view of market behavior that remains perpetually current. Hamilton, a contemporary of Charles H. Dow, presents a clear and in-depth discussion of the Dow Theory and its explanation of averages and affinity for predictable cycles of panic and prosperity. Provides an analysis of the stock market and its history since 1897. * This book is a springboard upon which current Dow Theory has thrived. * New foreword by Charles Carlson. The late William P. Hamilton originally published The Stock Market Barometer in 1922. Hamilton spent a career in financial journalism and became an editor of The Wall Street Journal.