The increased fi re load is expected to increase the cost of fi re management in the province 16% by the year 2040 and 54% by the year 2090 over year 2000 costs, exclusive of infl ation or other factors. [...] In addition to increases in seasonal fi re severity indices, a number of these studies also predict increases in the frequency of occurrence of extreme fi re danger in some areas of the country (e.g., Stocks et al. [...] This study uses lightning- and people-caused fi re occurrence models developed specifi cally for Ontario with GCM projections of future climate and Ontario's level of protection analysis software, LEOPARDS (see McAlpine and Hirsch 1999) to estimate the impacts of climate change on the fi re management organization both in terms of numbers of escaped fi res and with respect to changes in operationa [...] The sites of the GCM grid cell centres and OMNR weather stations used are shown in Figure 1. Fire Weather and Fire Danger To create the fi re climate of a future decade, the monthly anomalies were applied to the daily data from the OMNR fi re weather station archive from the years 1992-2001 (corresponding to the period over which lightning records were available). [...] The Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992) was used in conjunction with the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI) (calculated on the detection date of the fi re using the FWI System), and the fuel type associated with the fi re to estimate an initial rate of spread for each fi re.

The world's forests are disappearing at an alarming rate, and with disastrous consequences. Demand for wood and paper products ranks high amongst the causes of deforestation and forest degradation, and is now the major cause of loss in those forests richest in wildlife. There is a great deal to be done to improve the timber industry before our forests are safely and sustainably managed. Bad Harvest presents an incisive account of the role that the timber trade has played in the loss and degradation of forests around the world. It examines the environmental consequences of the trade on boreal, temporal and tropical regions, and its impacts for local people working and living in the forests. It also looks at the changing nature of the trade, and assesses current national and international initiatives to address the impacts of deforestation. Finally, the authors show how things could be improved in the future, by presenting a new strategy for sustainable forest management. Based on 15 years of extensive research - particularly work carried out by the World Wide Fund for Nature - Bad Harvest is essential reading on the subject; not only for environmentalists, but also for those in the timber trade seeking to improve the management and reputation of their product.

Globally, forest vegetation and soils are both major stores of terrestrial organic carbon, and major contributors to the annual cycling of carbon between the atmosphere and the biosphere. Forests are also a renewable resource, vital to the everyday existence of millions of people, since they provide food, shelter, fuel, raw materials and many other benefits. The combined effects of an expanding global population and increasing consumption of resources, however, may be seriously endangering both the extent and future sustainability of the world's forests. About thirty chapters cover four main themes: the role of forests in the global carbon cycle; effects of past, present and future changes in forest land use; the role of forest management, products and biomass on carbon cycling, and socio-economic impacts.