There is currently widespread concern about the impact of continuing climate change on the distribution, and ultimately persistence of species across all the major taxa. While much previous work has focussed on using climate envelope models to make projections of the location of potential future suitable climate space for a variety of species, these can at best give an indication of the likely direction and potential magnitude of distributional change. They lack information on spatial population dynamics, dispersal, habitat suitability, local adaptation and inter-specific interactions. The aim of this thesis was to explore how some of these other factors might alter projections regarding species' distributional change in response to climate change, using both theoretical models, and garden warbler (Sylvia borin) as a model system. A key aspect which has been largely over-looked until very recently is the complex range dynamics which can result from spatial variation in population dynamics, and the impacts of inter-annual variability rather than simply mean climate, both of which can impact extinction risk. Much insight into future impacts of climate change can also be gained through studies of past distributional changes, such as that observed in the British breeding population of garden warbler in the last three decades. In many cases, studies at smaller-scales are necessary to elucidate the mechanisms of climate change impacts and further explore potential synergies with other drivers of ecosystem change such as habitat loss and species invasions. The particular combination of factors which should be included to make projections of distributional change will be species-specific and scale-dependent, therefore modelling exercises should be carefully designed depending on the intended outcome for conservation.

A synthesis of present understanding of the structure of the geographic ranges of species, which is a core issue in ecology and biogeography with implications for many of the environmental issues presently facing humankind.

Rapid climate warming has caused species across the globe to shift their geographic ranges, and ecologists are increasingly concerned about whether species are able to track climate warming. Early efforts to predict species ranges used statistical correlation models that neglected population dynamics. Recently, theoretical ecologists have begun to incorporate both population growth and dispersal in their models. Integrodifference equations are useful in describing spatiotemporal dynamics of species with distinct growth and dispersal stages. These equations can accommodate a diverse assortment of dispersal mechanisms. I incorporated climate warming into some classic examples of integrodifference equations by letting the niche curve, a curve describing environmental suitability for population growth on a spatial gradient, shift in one direction. The equations thus become non-autonomous. Using a series of these non-autonomous integrodifference equations, I investigate the impact of changing climatic conditions on a single-species population. These integrodifference equations can prescribe climate-warming scenarios and environmental heterogeneity in a versatile way. These new models capture the range-shift phenomenon. A population experiencing niche-curve shifts exhibits traveling pulse solutions when it persists. The population may, however, lag behind the shifting niche curve, and carry a niche deficit. The niche deficit may stabilize at a level, or keep accumulating, depending on the acceleration of climate warming. Acceleration of climate warming is shown to impose extra burden on the species, compared with constant-speed warming, even if the amount of warming is the same over the same period of time for a fair comparison. The population experiencing climate warming may also fail to persist, and go extinct, if climate warming is too rapid. The threshold speed for persistence, or the critical speed, c*, can be viewed as the species' ability to keep up with climate warming. This critical speed depends both on the species' growth or recruitment, and its dispersal.

The potential for geographic range shifts of species is a pressing issue in ecology given the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change. The shifts will change total species richness and biodiversity patterns because species likely differ in their capacity to shift under climate change. This concern has sparked efforts to project changes in species' geographic distributions. Several of the underlying assumptions of the ecological theories driving these projections, however, have not been rigorously tested. Current models of species' ranges assume uniformity with respect to climatic impacts on fitness for all individuals of a species, which ignores local selection and historical genetic differences. Following this, these models assume that warmer temperature at the poleward edge of a species' range will increase fitness ('peripheral enhancement'), causing population increases and greater poleward colonization. My dissertation examines this assumption by using two butterfly species, Erynnis propertius and Papillo zelicaon, that co-occur and have contrasting levels of host specialization and dispersal ability. The aim of my research is to determine if populations are uniform or differentiated with respect to their responses to both temperature and host plant. I used a series of common garden experiments in the field and lab where I variede climate and host plant to see if locally adapted forms within species are present. I did not find evidence of local adaption in P. zelicaon, but populations across the species' range performed poorly temperature altered growth and survivorship in this species. Growth and survivorship of E. propertius larvae increased in warmer conditions. However, local adaptation during the overwintering period counteracted the increases found during the growing period. Further, southern population of E. propertius are locally adapted to their natal host plants, so colonization poleward may be further limited. This more nuanced consideration of species could lead to different expectations for the biological consequences of climate change if species can not shift their ranges as previously projected. We can not properly mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity until our projection methods capture realistic dynamics of species' ranges.

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An essential, up-to-date look at the critical interactions between biological diversity and climate change that will serve as an immediate call to action The physical and biological impacts of climate change are dramatic and broad-ranging. People who care about the planet and manage natural resources urgently need a synthesis of our rapidly growing understanding of these issues. In this all-new sequel to the 2005 volume Climate Change and Biodiversity, leading experts in the field summarize observed changes, assess what the future holds, and offer suggested responses. From extinction risk to ocean acidification, from the future of the Amazon to changes in ecosystem services, and from geoengineering to the power of ecosystem restoration, this book captures the sweep of climate change transformation of the biosphere.

CONSERVATION BIOGEOGRAPHY The Earth’s ecosystems are in the midst of an unprecedented period of change as a result of human action. Many habitats have been completely destroyed or divided into tiny fragments, others have been transformed through the introduction of new species, or the extinction of native plants and animals, while anthropogenic climate change now threatens to completely redraw the geographic map of life on this planet. The urgent need to understand and prescribe solutions to this complicated and interlinked set of pressing conservation issues has lead to the transformation of the venerable academic discipline of biogeography – the study of the geographic distribution of animals and plants. The newly emerged sub-discipline of conservation biogeography uses the conceptual tools and methods of biogeography to address real world conservation problems and to provide predictions about the fate of key species and ecosystems over the next century. This book provides the first comprehensive review of the field in a series of closely interlinked chapters addressing the central issues within this exciting and important subject.