The Socionomic Theory of Finance is a 13-year-long effort by Robert Prechter. It includes supporting chapters from twelve other scholars, writers, researchers and analysts. In contrast to the dismal science of economics, Prechter's theory is original, exciting and intellectually fulfilling. Every chapter rebuts conventions and offers ground-breaking insights in presenting a cohesive model with real-world application. The book draws a crucial distinction between finance and economics and ties both fields to human social behavior. Top reviewers from multiple disciplines have offered acclaim. Professor Terry Burnham calls it "the best book ever written on financial markets." In time, STF will transform the thinking of every individual in the world of finance. Read it and be among the first.

After 13 years of work, I have finally finished an 800-page book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance.

Why do trends in human society sometimes change so suddenly?The past three years show how quickly cultural shifts can occur, which makes answering the question above all the more urgent. In 1999, we were celebrating our heroes, the stock market had reached unprecedented heights - and many people believed that peace in the Middle East was at hand.Three years later, the economy is weak, corporate executives are being thrown in jail, bloodletting between Israelis and Palestinians is daily ritual, India is testing missiles, North Korea is threatening the U.S. with nuclear destruction, the U.S. is at war with Iraq, European allies are deserting the U.S., a senator is calling for the resignation of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Americans are stocking supplies for terrorist attacks.What changed? And why?Is it possible that all of these events flow from the same cause? Best-selling author Robert Prechter?s new two-book set, Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction, proposes a startlingly fresh answer. In Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction, Robert Prechter spells a historical correlation between patterned shifts in social mood and their most sensitive register, the stock market. He also presents engaging studies correlating social mood trends to music, sports, corporate culture, peace, war and macroeconomic trends.The new science of socionomics takes hundreds of popular notions about mass psychology, culture and the stock market and stands them on their heads. Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction includes a 2nd edition of the book that started it all, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior and the New Science of Socionomics as well as his new title, Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, an accessible collection of the essays that founded a new basis for social science. Together, these books can transform your understanding of how our society works. It will change the way you read the newspaper. It will even show you how to predict news trends months in advance. Learn for yourself the science of social prediction. Order Prechter?s two-book set today.

Today's financial and economic tribulations were a long time in the making. Many people ask, "Why didn't someone see it coming?" A New York Times bestselling book did see it coming. Over 100,000 people read it in time to protect their wealth. The book foresaw and explained the collapse in home prices, plunge in stocks, subprime debacle, liquidity crisis, the demise of Fannie and Freddie, the Federal Reserve's failure to turn the trend, and lots more. The book was Robert Prechter?s Conquer the Crash, published in early 2002, when the Dow was above 10,000 and the financial world was partying around-the-clock. Fast forward to today: the average U.S. homeowner has suffered a decline of 30% to 40% in property value. Stocks and commodities had their biggest fall since 1929-1932. Fannie Mae is a zombie corporation under the government?s protection. The Fed has pushed every button at its disposal (and then some), to no avail. If Prechter thought a whole new book would help, he'd have written one. But Conquer the Crash is a book-length forecast that's still coming true -- only some of the future has caught up with the specific predictions he published back then. There is much more to come. That means more danger, but also great opportunity. Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition offers you 188 new pages of vital information (480 pages total) plus all the original forecasts and recommendations that make the book more compelling and relevant than the day it published. In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about investor enthusiasm in 2005-2008, and you'll realize it's true. Even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching, next leg down of the unfolding depression. In this 2nd edition, Prechter gives a warning he's never had to include in 30 years of publishing -- namely, that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. In other words, prudent people need to act while they can. Conquer the Crash, 2nd Edition readers will receive exclusive online access to the Conquer the Crash Readers Page, where Prechter continually updates the book's recommended services and institutions.

This book provides a basic grounding in the use of probability to model random financial phenomena of uncertainty, and is targeted at an advanced undergraduate and graduate level. It should appeal to finance students looking for a firm theoretical guide to the deep end of derivatives and investments. Bankers and finance professionals in the fields of investments, derivatives, and risk management should also find the book useful in bringing probability and finance together. The book contains applications of both discrete time theory and continuous time mathematics, and is extensive in scope. Distribution theory, conditional probability, and conditional expectation are covered comprehensively, and applications to modeling state space securities under market equilibrium are made. Martingale is studied, leading to consideration of equivalent martingale measures, fundamental theorems of asset pricing, change of numeraire and discounting, risk-adjusted and forward-neutral measures, minimal and maximal prices of contingent claims, Markovian models, and the existence of martingale measures preserving the Markov property. Discrete stochastic calculus and multiperiod models leading to no-arbitrage pricing of contingent claims are also to be found in this book, as well as the theory of Markov Chains and appropriate applications in credit modeling. Measure-theoretic probability, moments, characteristic functions, inequalities, and central limit theorems are examined. The theory of risk aversion and utility, and ideas of risk premia are considered. Other application topics include optimal consumption and investment problems and interest rate theory.

This introductory text is devoted to exposing the underlying nature of price formation in financial markets as a predominantly sociological phenomenon that relates individual decision-making to emergent and co-evolving social and financial structures. Two different levels of this sociological influence are considered: First, we examine how price formation results from the social dynamics of interacting individuals, where interaction occurs either through the price or by direct communication. Then the same processes are revisited and examined at the level of larger groups of individuals. In this book, models of both levels of socio-finance are presented, and it is shown, in particular, how complexity theory provides the conceptual and methodological tools needed to understand and describe such phenomena. Accordingly, readers are first given a broad introduction to the standard economic theory of rational financial markets and will come to understand its shortcomings with the help of concrete examples. Complexity theory is then introduced in order to properly account for behavioral decision-making and match the observed market dynamics. This book is conceived as a primer for newcomers to the field, as well as for practitioners seeking new insights into the field of complexity science applied to socio-economic systems in general, and financial markets and price formation in particular.

What drives our social mood? Our actions? Our motivations? Can we look into the make-up of the universe and apply it to who we are and what we do? The answers to these questions are to be found in the new science of socionomics. Socionomics evolved from the Wave Principle, a theory of patterns in financial markets. Now Robert Prechter proposes that this very same principle can be applied to our own social and cultural lives. Prechter shows that dominant aspects of our unconscious mentation are characterized by measurable patterns. Those patterns form the building blocks of humankind's social interaction, and in turn, the Wave Principle.