The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data

The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Title The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data PDF eBook
Author Universities--National Bureau Committee for Economic Research
Publisher
Pages 488
Release 1960
Genre Business forecasting
ISBN

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The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data

The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Title The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data PDF eBook
Author Universities National Bureau Committee for Economic Research
Publisher
Pages 490
Release 1960
Genre Business forecasting
ISBN

Download The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data

The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Title The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data PDF eBook
Author Universities-National Bureau Staff
Publisher
Pages 480
Release 1960
Genre
ISBN 9780870143014

Download The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data

The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data
Title The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data PDF eBook
Author Universities-National Bureau Staff
Publisher
Pages 480
Release 1960
Genre
ISBN 9780870143014

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Technical Paper

Technical Paper
Title Technical Paper PDF eBook
Author
Publisher
Pages 614
Release 1974
Genre United States
ISBN

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Price Expectations in Rising Inflation

Price Expectations in Rising Inflation
Title Price Expectations in Rising Inflation PDF eBook
Author I. Visco
Publisher Elsevier
Pages 289
Release 2014-06-28
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1483295834

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It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues.The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by respondents to other surveys for different countries and with the forecasts generated by alternative predictors of the inflation process. The expectations considered in the study are shown to be remarkably accurate, anticipating all major price changes, even if during the years of high and rising inflation which have followed the first oil crisis they appear to underestimate on a number of occasions the inflation rates actually experienced, as the alternative predictors also do.An accurate testing of the rational expectations hypothesis is conducted, rejecting it over the entire sample period but not for the period of mild, but variable inflation which preceded the first oil crises.It is shown that a mixed adaptive-regressive model, with both error-learning and return-to-normality components adapts very well to the data considered in this study and that inflation expectations are also influenced by an uncertainty component which affects the adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, regression towards normality is slowed down when industrial capacity is utilized above normal, and vice-versa. Many other issues such as the dispersion of individual answers, the problems of aggregation and measurement error are also considered and an extensive bibliography of other works where use is made of direct information on expectations, is included.

The Role of Anticipations and Plans in Economic Behavior and Their Use in Economic Analysis and Forecasting

The Role of Anticipations and Plans in Economic Behavior and Their Use in Economic Analysis and Forecasting
Title The Role of Anticipations and Plans in Economic Behavior and Their Use in Economic Analysis and Forecasting PDF eBook
Author Franco Modigliani
Publisher
Pages 176
Release 1961
Genre Economic forecasting
ISBN

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