A storm is coming, a turbulent new era in which oil prices will soar and inflation will sky-rocket. In this important new book, two leading financial strategists show you how to ride out the tempest while still capturing impressive investment returns... It's the oil, stupid. For the last thirty years, the price of oil has been the single most important determinant of the world economy. But now most geologists concur that the planet's supply of cheaply extractable oil, the traditional fuel that powers growth, will shortly be overtaken by demand. In the coming global turbulence, oil prices will top $100 a barrel, helping push inflation well into double digits and even posing a risk of intermittent deflation. The result will be an economy more rocky and a stock market more volatile than ever before. Fortunately, experts Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb provide a road map that will guide you through the worst of it-and point the way to financial success. With the help of their "all season" Oil Indicator, they'll show you how to choose the right investments for any market environment, guiding you toward portfolios that prize real assets. Among the crucial lessons you'll learn: Why oil and natural gas stocks should be core holdings in every investor's portfolio Why a cautious buy-and-hold strategy is a sure money loser and why conventional "safe" stocks are really the riskiest Why gold may be on the verge of a historic bull run How the global oil wars make defense stocks a premium buy Where to find the surest bets in the burgeoning field of alternative energy How to profit from real estate without actually owning any. With its hands-on advice and savvy stock recommendations, which offer an alternative to staying in pre-inflation-era positions and risking portfolio meltdown, The Oil Factor promises to be the indispensable financial advice guide of the decade.

America's energy position, and that of the West in general, is vulnerable. The major source of that vulnerability is the potential that oil supplies from the Gulf1 could be interrupted for an extended period. The fact that during the first quarter of 1983 U.S. crude oil imports dropped to 2.8 million barrels a day (mbd) from 4 mbd during the same quarter in 19822 (a very substantial decrease of thirty percent from what. was already a relatively low level) is less comforting than it appears. In spite of this decrease in demand, U.S. reserve stocks could be eliminated by an increased demand for oil stemming from a vigorous economic recovery, in the the West. If, in the context of such a recovery, the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could overcome their current disagreements and introduce some discipline regarding production. levels, they might be able to reestablish a tight supply situation in the world oil market. Moreover, even if such developments do not take place, there is always the chance of a major upheaval in the Middle East-Gulf region, given the volativity of the area, that could be disruptive enough to cause a substantial reduction in oil supplies. In this context, it must be recognized that America's energy vulnerability is inseparable from that of the West in general, because of the fungability of oil.

How oil volatility is affecting the global political scene, and where the oil market is heading The world is rapidly moving towards an oil environment defined by volatility. The Vega Factor: Oil Volatility and the Next Global Crisis takes an in-depth look at the most important topics in the industry, including strategic risk, why traditional pricing mechanisms will no longer govern the market, and how the current government approaches have only worsened an already bad situation. Details the industry's players, including companies, traders, and governments Describes the priorities that will need to be revised, and the policies needed to achieve stability Explains how today's oil market is fundamentally different from the pre-crisis market Oil prices affect everyone. The Vega Factor explains the new international oil environment of increasing consolidation and decreasing competition, and reveals how consumers and investors can navigate price volatility and new government policies.