The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic implications of large-scale inward remittances for a small open economy. By including remittances in several standard models, the paper concludes that the overall macroeconomic impact of remittances is likely to be ambiguous. The impact depends on the structural characteristics of the receiving country, in particular its consumption and investment patterns, and its capacity to manage large financial inflows. As data deficiencies and methodological problems associated with remittances preclude crosscountry empirical investigation, the paper illustrates these findings with data on Tajikistan, where remittances as a share of GDP are among the highest in the world. The paper also evaluates the pros and cons of remittances in a broader political economy context.

Remittances have played an important role as one of the drivers of Tajikistan's robust economic growth during the past several years. The volume of official remittances has significantly increased since 2001 and now represent close to 12 percent of GDP (2004). Remittances have become the most important source of external financing for the balance of payments, have increased incomes, and as a result helped reduce poverty. Recognizing their importance, the Tajikistan authorities have sought to sustain remittance flows. However, anecdotal evidence indicates that migrants are not sufficiently integrated into the Tajikistan financial system, much less that of the destination countries (e.g. Russia). This Policy Note has two main objectives: (1) to expand knowledge of the size of remittances, their sending mechanisms (especially through formal channels), and their use; and (2) to propose policy recommendations to enhance the development impact of remittances. The report is organized into six sections, including an Introduction. The sections provide background on migration and remittances related to Tajikistan; discuss the estimation of remittance size and data issues; examine the transfer channels of remittances (their cost, access, and speed), their use, and the impact of remittances by highlighting impediments to the efficiency of remittance transfer services through formal channels, examining the use of remittances by recipient households in Tajikistan, and identifying impacts of remittances on the economy; and drawing some of the key lessons learned from the international experience that could be considered in the Tajik context. The final section recommends policies to enhance the development impact of remittances taking into account the Tajik context and identifies topics for further research.

International migration, the movement of people across international boundaries to improve economic opportunity, has enormous implications for growth and welfare in both origin and destination countries. An important benefit to developing countries is the receipt of remittances or transfers from income earned by overseas emigrants. Official data show that development countries' remittance receipts totaled 160 billion in 2004, more than twice the size of official aid. This year's edition of Global Economic Prospects focuses on remittances and migration. The bulk of the book covers remittances.

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household’s remittances propagates through the network of input-output linkages in Sub-Saharan African countries. We first propose two network centrality measures to assess the role of some sectors as key input providers in the economy. Then, we use these measures to quantify the effect of sectoral linkages on sectoral and total output following an increase in remittances inflows. Our empirical results suggest that the effects of remittances on recipient economies increase with the degree of linkages across sectors, which is especially prominent in the case of the financial intermediation sector. Our paper contributes to the emerging macroeconomic literature on the propagation of shocks across sectors and the implications for the whole economy.

The paper uses a unique survey of remittance-receiving individuals from Tajikistan to study the impact of policy awareness on consumer behavior. The results show that knowledge of deposit insurance encourages the use of formal channels for transmitting remittances and reduces dollarization. Given the size and importance of remittances in Tajikistan, improving financial literacy and better publicizing details of the social safety net may encourage a more frequent use of formal channels for transferring remittances and reduce reliance on foreign exchange for transaction purposes. This is likely to improve bank profitability, enhance financial stability, and improve access to finance.

Since the start of the 1990s, Central Asia has been the main purveyor of migrants in the post-Soviet space. These massive migrations due to social upheavals over the last twenty years impact issues of governance; patterns of social adaptation; individual and collective identities; and gender relations in Central Asia. This volume raises the importance of internal migrations, those at a regional, intra-Central Asian, level, labor migrations to Russia, and carries us as far away to the Uzbek migrants based in Istanbul, New York, or Seoul, as well as to the young women of Tashkent who head to Germany or France, and to the Germans, Greeks, and Jews of Central Asia who have returned to their “ethnic homelands”. Contributors include Aida Aaly Alimbaeva, Stéphanie Belouin, Adeline Braux, Asel Dolotkeldieva, Olivier Ferrando, Sophie Hohmann, Nafisa Khusenova, Erica Marat, Sophie Massot, Saodat Olimova, Sébastien Peyrouse, Luisa Piart, Madeleine Reeves, Elena Sadovskaya.