This publication develops a risk-management tool to examine the robustness of policy responses to managing risks and uncertainty across a variety of different threats to food security, and applies the framework to an Indonesia case study.

This report evaluates the impact of Indonesia¿s transition from a food-first focus to an export-oriented development strategy on its agricultural production, productivity growth, consumer food demand, and lifestyle. Shifting production and consumption patterns have led to improving agricultural trade patterns and food security, which in turn have contributed to increased export opportunities for U.S. agricultural suppliers. Charts and tables.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on food security in Indonesia. Ensuring food production and availability is a major concern for policymakers. The Indonesian government has historically made various efforts in this regard, encouraging and providing facilitation to farmers as the main producers of food, such as through the supply of agricultural inputs. In responding to the pandemic, the Indonesian government designed several programmes to protect farmers as food producers. The government was already carrying out these programmes before COVID-19 broke out but it increased their number and frequency during the pandemic. This paper examines the situation for several agricultural commodities as a result of the travel restrictions implemented under COVID-19. These restrictions affected the flow of goods, including of agricultural inputs and outputs. In addition, the paper compares conditions before and during the pandemic, assessing this within the broader context of government actions to address the challenges posed by COVID-19. It employs descriptive analysis, trend analysis and comparative analysis. The paper ends with an analysis of the adequacy of food consumption and food security in Indonesia and of the Social Safety Net (Jaring Pengaman Sosial – JPS) programme. As a result, the agriculture sector in Indonesia has withstood the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and its early restrictions relatively well. This can be seen in the economic growth (year on year) of the Indonesian agriculture sector, which was consistently positive for eight quarters (from the first quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021) while at the same time total GDP growth in 2020 was negative. Specifically, the performance and relative resilience of the agriculture sector during the pandemic can be observed on several indicators, such as production, productivity, prices and trade in a number of main commodities, described below. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for all six commodities studied, no major shocks were observed on several indicators, including production, productivity, prices and trade. There were also no major shocks to food resilience. Responsive policies and assured provision of inputs were very important in facing the threat of food stock uncertainty. Indonesia’s government implemented several social safety net programmes, which suppressed the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security. Policy recommendations for the government, to ensure the continued stability and resilience of agriculture and the food system.

With both achievements and persistent challenges over the last few decades, ensuring food security remains a priority for policymakers and development efforts in Indonesia. Setting aside some backsliding resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia’s poverty reduction journey has come a long way since the Asian financial crisis to less than 10% by 2019. Likewise, meaningful progress has been seen in daily calorie consumption and a declining stunting rate. But despite these gains, many challenges are evident. On the production side, agriculture struggles to promote productivity, community livelihood, and sustainability—a challenge made more pronounced by increased extreme weather events, climate change, and emissions . Meanwhile, on the consumption side, not everyone enjoys access to food and nutrition security equally. Modernizing agriculture is seen as a potential response to challenges in agriculture. Increased investment in agricultural mechanization and digital technologies provides a critical avenue to transform the sector into a more inclusive, efficient, and sustainable system. With the expected increase in productivity and income—including for smallholder farmers—agricultural modernization will help Indonesia’s economy structurally transform and finally shift off-farm toward higher-paying, higher-productivity sectors outside of agriculture. The challenges facing Indonesia's food security and modernization efforts in agriculture set the broad context for this book. While solutions to food insecurity are complicated and involve many stakeholders, this book focuses on optimizing the private sector’s role in improving food security. The Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS) has gathered expertise on a range of topics related to improving Indonesian agriculture and food security and the private sector’s contribution. CIPS is an independent, non-profit, non-partisan think tank advocating for practical policy reforms informed by evidence-based policy research and analysis. CIPS presents this book as part of its commitment to empowering Indonesians to lead prosperous and peaceful lives by supporting open food trade and agriculture markets to ensure food security and sustainable livelihoods. This publication was made possible through the support of a grant from the John Templeton Foundation. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the John Templeton Foundation. Aditya Alta is the Head of Agriculture and Food Security Research at the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia. Dr. Risti Permani is a senior lecturer in agribusiness at the School of Agriculture and Food Sciences at the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, and a member of the board of directors at the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia. Dr. Maria Monica Wihardja is a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and a member of the board of directors at the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia.

This report provides analysis and policy recommendations on the investments needed in Indonesia's agriculture sector to boost food security and enhance economic development. Agriculture continues to play a vital role in Indonesia's economic development. The sector contributes significantly to the country's gross domestic product, provides jobs for nearly 30% of the workforce, and has the essential function of providing food security. The report assesses the country's agricultural investments and policies, and evaluates the economy-wide impacts of alternative agricultural scenarios. The results show that Indonesia can virtually end hunger by 2030 with an appropriate mix of investments in agricultural research and development, irrigation expansion and water use efficiency, and rural infrastructure. The report makes key policy recommendations to support government efforts to mobilize these investments, which will also contribute to the country's economic growth.

How does a $16,000 subsidy per farmer in the USA translate into food insecurity for households in Cagayan Valley in the Philippines? How does a few percentage points rise in grain demand in South Korea drive up meat prices in the wet market of Valencia in Cotabato in the Philippines? This book takes us through the interaction of international trade realities and national policies, and how they impact on the survival strategies of even remote households and villages. Knowing and understanding such links raise larger and pressing considerations for development work in many communities. The need for a wider range of tools of analysis and intervention, especially in the field of economics and in macroeconomic policy-making is upon us. This book will attempt to contribute to filling that need, and, hopefully contribute also to efforts at bringing micro development concerns into macro development programmes and policies.