We estimate the impact of fiscal stimulus measures enacted in response to COVID-19 on U.S. GDP, investment and exports. We apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium model adept at estimating total direct and indirect effects and their time-path. Initial stimulus bills, including the CARES Act, reduced the potential decline in GDP resulting from the pandemic by 7.1 percentage points in early 2020. Later rounds were not as beneficial, largely due to crowding out of investment. Unemployment benefits provided a larger increase in GDP than direct and indirect payments to individuals, and corporate tax relief had a positive impact on growth.

The Policy Actions for COVID-19 Economic Recovery (PACER) Dialogues were held from June to September 2020 as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic accelerated around the world. They shared cutting-edge knowledge and best practices to help countries in Southeast Asia and the People's Republic of China strengthen cooperation to mitigate the devastating effects of COVID-19 and accelerate their economic recovery. This compendium of 13 policy briefs summarizes the discussions, recommendations, and actionable insights from the PACER Dialogues.

Policymakers, faced with different options for replacing lost earnings, have had limited evidence to inform their decisions. The current economic crisis has highlighted the need for data that are local and timely so that different fiscal policy options on local economies can be more immediately evaluated. This paper provides a framework for evaluating real-time effects of fiscal policy on local economic activity using two new sources of near real-time data. The first data source is administrative records that provide universal, weekly, information on unemployment claimants. The second data source is transaction level data on economic activity that are available on a daily basis. We use shift-share approaches, combined with these two data sources and the novel cross-county variation in the incidence of the COVID-19 supplement to Unemployment Insurance to estimate the local impact of unemployment, earnings replacement, and their interaction on economic activity. We find that higher replacement rates lead to significantly more consumer spending - even with increases in the unemployment rate - consistent with the goal of the fiscal stimulus. Our estimates suggest that, based on the latest data, eliminating the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) supplement would lead to a 44% decline in local spending. If the FPUC supplement is reduced to $200, resulting in a reduction of the replacement rate by 44%, spending would fall by 28%. Even if the FPUC supplement is reduced to $400, the replacement rate would fall by 29% and spending would fall by 12%. Because these data are available in every state, the approach can be used to inform decision making not just in this current crisis, but also in future recessions.

The Economic and Financial Impacts of the COVID-19 Crisis Around the World: Expect the Unexpected provides an informed, research-based in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 crisis, its impacts on households, nonfinancial firms, banks, and financial market participants, and the effectiveness of the reactions of governments and policymakers in the United States and around the world. It provides reflections and perspectives on the social costs and benefits of various policies undertaken and a toolkit of preventive measures to deal with crises beyond the COVID-19 crisis. Authors Allen N. Berger, Mustafa U. Karakaplan, and Raluca A. Roman apply their expertise to the research and data on the COVID-19 economic crisis as well as draw on their own rich research experience. They take a holistic approach that compares and contrasts this crisis with other economic and financial crises and assesses economic and financial behavior and government policies in the booms before crises and the aftermaths following them, as well as the crises themselves. They do all this with a keen eye on "Expecting the Unexpected future crises, and policies that might anticipate them and provide better outcomes for society. - Serves as a compendium of available research and data on COVID-19, policies in response to the pandemic, and its effects on the real economy, banking sector, and financial markets - Contextualizes the COVID-19 economic crisis by comparing it to two other global crises from the past: the Crash of 1929 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 - Helps illustrate how crises that originate in financial markets and in the banking sector differ from each other as well as from the COVID-19 crisis that harmed the real economy first - Compares the policies and outcomes of nations to the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses their costs and benefits, with potential implications for prospective future crises

The Office for Budget Responsibility was established to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances. Part of this role includes producing the official economic and fiscal forecasts. This report sets out forecasts for the period to 2015-16. The report also assesses whether the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fiscal objectives and presents preliminary observations on the long-run sustainability of the public finances. Since the June forecast, the UK economy has recovered more strongly than initially expected. The GDP growth was greater than expected in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but that unemployment levels have risen to levels that the June forecast did not anticipate until the middle of 2012. In general the world economy has also grown more strongly. CPI inflation has remained slightly higher than expected in June, whilst public finances have performed as forecast. The interest rates on UK debt are lower than in June. The OBR forecasts that the economy will continue to recover from the recession, but at a slower pace than the recoveries of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. The publication is divided into 5 chapters with two annexes.

The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Recent evidence suggests that the process of economic recovery has begun. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the labour and housing markets. This book examines the current issues, options and impacts of the U.S. economic recovery and stimulus measures.