Electric utility customers spent about $5.8 billion on energy efficiency programs in 2016 to cost-effectively offset a portion of growth in U.S. power needs. That, in turn, affects the need for investment in new electricity infrastructure, across generation, transmission and distribution systems. A new study by Berkeley Lab provides a bottom-up assessment of the potential impact of existing and likely state policies and market conditions to promote or constrain future spending and savings for electricity efficiency programs funded by utility customers in all U.S. states.

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments).Key findings from the analysis are as follows:* By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case.* Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning.* Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, and the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly.* Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales).* These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration's most recent reference case forecast of retail electricity sales through 2025, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast.* The pathway that customer-funded efficiency programs ultimately take will depend on a series of key challenges and uncertainties associated both with the broader market and policy context and with the implementation and regulatory oversight of the energy efficiency programs themselves.

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration's most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast. However, the pathway that customer-funded efficiency programs ultimately take will depend on a series of key challenges and uncertainties associated both with the broader market and policy context and with the implementation and regulatory oversight of the energy efficiency programs themselves.

Electric and natural gas energy efficiency in the United States is pursued through a diverse mix of policies and programmatic efforts, which support and supplement private investments by individuals and businesses. These efforts include federal and state minimum efficiency standards for electric and gas end-use products; state building energy codes; a national efficiency labelling program (ENERGY STAR®); tax credits; and a broad array of largely incentive-based programs for consumers, funded primarily by electric and natural gas utility customers. This book provides information on projected spending and savings of the future of utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs in the United States; and discusses the shifting landscape of ratepayer-funded energy efficiency in the United States.

Electric and natural gas energy efficiency in the United States is pursued through a diverse mix of policies and programmatic efforts, which support and supplement private investments by individuals and businesses. These efforts include federal and state minimum efficiency standards for electric and gas end-use products; state building energy codes; a national efficiency labeling program (ENERGY STAR®); tax credits; and a broad array of largely incentive-based programs for consumers, funded primarily by electric and natural gas utility customers. This book provides information on projected spending and savings of the future of utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs in the United States; and discusses the shifting landscape of ratepayer-funded energy efficiency in the United States

"The average cost to utilities to save a kilowatt-hour (kWh) in the United States is 2.5 cents, according to the most comprehensive assessment to date of the cost performance of energy efficiency programs funded by electricity customers. These costs are similar to those documented earlier. Cost-effective efficiency programs help ensure electricity system reliability at the most affordable cost as part of utility planning and implementation activities for resource adequacy. Building on prior studies, Berkeley Lab analyzed the cost performance of 8,790 electricity efficiency programs between 2009 and 2015 for 116 investor-owned utilities and other program administrators in 41 states. The Berkeley Lab database includes programs representing about three-quarters of total spending on electricity efficiency programs in the United States"--Abstract

Electricity, which has largely supplanted oil as the most controversial energy issue of the 1980s, is at the center of some of the world's bitterest economic and environmental controversies. Soaring costs, high interest rates, and environmental damage caused by large power plants have wreaked havoc on the once booming electricity industry. Although policymakers around the world disagree vigorously about future trends and appropriate policies, virtually all acknowledge that a turning point has been reached. This document discusses: (1) past practices and trends leading to problems related to electric power generation and the electrical industry in the United States and foreign countries (including developing nations); (2) innovations and advances in the electrical industry related to the growth of electricity; (3) the rush to small-scale energy production and cogeneration (the combined production of heat and power), led not by utilities but by large industrial companies building their own power systems and small firms created to tap new energy sources such as wind power and geothermal energy; (4) the role of energy efficient products and practices as a power source; and (5) electricity's future. (JN)