The paper models an adjustable peg exchange rate arrangement as a policy rule with an escape clause under which the timing and magnitudes of realignments are the outcomes of policy optimization decisions. Under the assumptions that market participants are rational, risk averse, and fully informed about the incentives of policymakers, the analysis focuses on the implications for relating realignment expectations to the state variables that enter the policy objective function, for modeling the bias in using forward exchange rates to predict future spot rates, and for characterizing the effectiveness of sterilized intervention.

An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. It has often been suggested that this puzzle may be resolved by using better statistical procedures that correct for both non-stationarity and nonnormality in the data. We document that even after accounting for non-stationarity, nonnormality, and heteroscedasticity using parametric and non-parametric tests on data for over a quarter century, US dollar forward rates for horizons ranging from one to twelve months for the major currencies, the British pound, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and the German mark, are generally not rational forecasts of future spot rates. These findings of non-rationality in forward exchange rates for the major currencies continue to be puzzling especially as these foreign exchange markets are some of the most liquid asset markets with very low trading costs.

In this groundbreaking study, Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth Froot examine the phenomenon of forward discount bias in exchange rates, using survey data to shed light on the behavior of investors and market participants. Their findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of currency markets. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.