This book is an introduction to complex systems thinking at the global governance level. It offers concepts, tools, and ways of thinking about how systems change that can be applied to the most wicked problems facing the world today. More than an abstract argument for complexity theory, the book offers a targeted critique of today’s highest-profile proposals for improving the governance of our environment, security, finance, health, and digital space. It suggests that we should spend less effort and resources on upgrading existing institutions, and more on understanding how they (and we) relate to each other. The volume will be essential reading for public policymakers, NGOs and think tanks, foreign policy experts, government officials, and global decision-makers.

An up-close look at the fixed income market and what lies ahead Interweaving compelling, and often amusing, anecdotes from author Simon Lack's distinguished thirty-year career as a professional investor with hard economic data, this engaging book skillfully reveals why Bonds Are Not Forever. Along the way, it provides investors with a coherent framework for understanding the future of the fixed income markets and, more importantly, answering the question, "Where should I invest tomorrow?" Bonds Are Not Forever chronicles the steady decline in interest rates from their peak in the 1980s and the concurrent drop in inflation during that period. Lack explains how those two factors spurred a dramatic growth in borrowing among both governments and individuals. Along the way, Lack describes how a financial industry meant to provide capital needed to drive productivity and economic growth became disconnected from Main Street and explores the grave economic, social, and political consequences of that disconnect. Provides practical solutions for avoiding the risk of falling bond markets and guaranteed negative real returns on savings Explains how the bursting of the real estate bubble in 2007–2008 led to massive borrowing by governments as they attempted to offset a sharp fall in economic activity Details how the trends of exploding debt and a financial sector that has grown much bigger than it needs to be have dramatically changed the game for savers Offering a uniquely intimate, yet analytically thorough look at the coming fixed income crisis, Bonds Are Not Forever is must reading for investment professionals, as well as retail investors and their advisors.

A "riveting and illuminating" Bill Gates Summer Reading pick about how and why some nations recover from trauma and others don't (Yuval Noah Harari), by the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of the landmark bestseller Guns, Germs, and Steel. In his international bestsellers Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse, Jared Diamond transformed our understanding of what makes civilizations rise and fall. Now, in his third book in this monumental trilogy, he reveals how successful nations recover from crises while adopting selective changes -- a coping mechanism more commonly associated with individuals recovering from personal crises. Diamond compares how six countries have survived recent upheavals -- ranging from the forced opening of Japan by U.S. Commodore Perry's fleet, to the Soviet Union's attack on Finland, to a murderous coup or countercoup in Chile and Indonesia, to the transformations of Germany and Austria after World War Two. Because Diamond has lived and spoken the language in five of these six countries, he can present gut-wrenching histories experienced firsthand. These nations coped, to varying degrees, through mechanisms such as acknowledgment of responsibility, painfully honest self-appraisal, and learning from models of other nations. Looking to the future, Diamond examines whether the United States, Japan, and the whole world are successfully coping with the grave crises they currently face. Can we learn from lessons of the past? Adding a psychological dimension to the in-depth history, geography, biology, and anthropology that mark all of Diamond's books, Upheaval reveals factors influencing how both whole nations and individual people can respond to big challenges. The result is a book epic in scope, but also his most personal yet.

A concise new history of the United States revealing that crises -- not unlike those of the present day -- have determined our nation's course from the start In A Nation Forged by Crisis, historian Jay Sexton contends that our national narrative is not one of halting yet inevitable progress, but of repeated disruptions brought about by shifts in the international system. Sexton shows that the American Revolution was a consequence of the increasing integration of the British and American economies; that a necessary precondition for the Civil War was the absence, for the first time in decades, of foreign threats; and that we cannot understand the New Deal without examining the role of European immigrants and their offspring in transforming the Democratic Party. A necessary corrective to conventional narratives of American history, A Nation Forged by Crisis argues that we can only prepare for our unpredictable future by first acknowledging the contingencies of our collective past.

You can thrive in crisis! For behold, darkness shall cover the earth, and thick darkness the peoples; but the Lord will arise upon you, and his glory will be seen upon you. (Isaiah 60:2, ESV) The current season of global crisis has led to countless personal crises. Economies collapsing. Nations shaking. Natural disasters bringing...