It's trendy to be pessimistic about the future. We hear daily about the looming threats from global warming, terrorist plots, nuclear proliferation, overpopulation, and other frightening possibilities. It's also easy to point to the unprecedented toll of destruction during the two world wars of the 20th century and conclude that the prospects for global civilization rest on pretty shaky grounds.While not discounting the calamities of the past or the troubling realities on the horizon, social psychologist Ronald G. Havelock looks at the same facts and sees a different, much more optimistic trend. He calls it the forward function, a cluster of six forces that has driven human progress from the Stone Age to the present.In this positive yet realistic appraisal of the human condition, Havelock examines in detail these six forces. He explains that the key to humanity's past and future success is our ability to pass on what has been learned from one generation to the next, resulting in an ever larger and more widely shared knowledge platform. This has been especially evident in the last two hundred years, when the scientific revolution has produced an explosive growth of knowledge building and the application of that knowledge to human needs.Today, the most exciting and hopeful development is that the transfer of knowledge is increasingly not just from generation to generation but within generations and across cultures. And it extends from the rich to the middle class and even to the poor. The primary consequence of knowledge expansion is thus the empowerment of those who can understand and use it and a better life for more and more people.Havelock argues that, despite periodic setbacks, progress is actually accelerating on many dimensions of human existence. In his view, fears for the human future are wildly exaggerated and overlook both the knowledge resources at hand to solve problems and the ingenuity of succeeding generations in using those resources for both individual and planetary well-being.Grounded in a wealth of solid research, this optimistic outlook on human destiny offers a realistic hope that we human beings are fully capable of solving even our most challenging problems.Ronald G. Havelock, PhD (Shady Side, MD) is the director of the Knowledge Transfer Institute, a consulting practice formerly affiliated with The American University of Washington, D.C. He is the author of five books, including The Change Agents Guide to Innovation (with S. Zlotolow).

“I would say that learning this material ... has lifted some of the existential weight from me. Things aren’t as bad as they are trumpeted to be. In fact, they’re quite a bit better, and they’re getting better, and so we’re doing a better job than we thought. There’s more to us than we thought. We’re adopting our responsibilities as stewards of the planet rapidly. We are moving towards improving everyone’s life." —Jordan B. Peterson, Beyond Order: 12 More Rules for Life Think the world is getting worse? If so, you’re wrong. The world is, for the most part, actually getting better. But 58 percent of people in 17 countries who were surveyed in 2016 thought that the world was either getting worse or staying the same. Americans were even more glum: 65 percent thought the world was getting worse and only 6 percent thought it was getting better. The uncontroversial data on major global trends in this book will persuade you that this dark view of the state of humanity and the natural world is, in large part, badly mistaken. World population will peak at 8–9 billion before the end of this century, as the global fertility rate continues its fall from 6 children per woman in 1960 to the current rate of 2.4. The global absolute poverty rate has fallen from 42 percent in 1981 to 8.6 percent today. Satellite data show that forest area has been expanding since 1982. Natural resources are becoming ever cheaper and more abundant. Since 1900, the average life expectancy has more than doubled, reaching more than 72 years globally. Of course, major concerns such as climate change, marine plastic pollution, and declining wildlife populations are still with us, but many of these problems are already being ameliorated as a result of the favorable economic, social, and technological trends that are documented in this book. You can’t fix what is wrong in the world if you don’t know what’s actually happening. Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know will provide busy people with quick-to-read, easily understandable, and entertaining access to surprising facts that they need to know about how the world is really faring.

Each time history repeats itself, so it's said, the price goes up. The twentieth century was a time of runaway growth in human population, consumption, and technology, placing a colossal load on all natural systems, especially earth, air, and water — the very elements of life. The most urgent questions of the twenty-first century are: where will this growth lead? can it be consolidated or sustained? and what kind of world is our present bequeathing to our future?In his #1 bestseller A Short History of Progress Ronald Wright argues that our modern predicament is as old as civilization, a 10,000-year experiment we have participated in but seldom controlled. Only by understanding the patterns of triumph and disaster that humanity has repeated around the world since the Stone Age can we recognize the experiment's inherent dangers, and, with luck and wisdom, shape its outcome.

Donated by Sydney Harris.

Pulitzer Prize-winner David Brion Davis here provides a penetrating survey of slavery and emancipation from ancient times to the twentieth century. His trenchant analysis puts the most recent international debates about freedom and human rights into much-needed perspective. Davis shows that slavery was once regarded as a form of human progress, playing a critical role in the expansion of the western world. It was not until the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries that views of slavery as a retrograde institution gained far-reaching acceptance. Davis illuminates this momentous historical shift from "progressive" enslavement to "progressive" emancipation, ranging over an array of important developments--from the slave trade of early Muslims and Jews to twentieth-century debates over slavery in the League of Nations and the United Nations. In probing the intricate connections among slavery, emancipation, and the idea of progress, Davis sheds new light on two crucial issues: the human capacity for dignifying acts of oppression and the problem of implementing social change.