The essence of scenarios

The essence of scenarios
Title The essence of scenarios PDF eBook
Author Roland Kupers
Publisher Amsterdam University Press
Pages 170
Release 2015-12-15
Genre Social Science
ISBN 9048522099

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In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or scenarios, Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the presentan assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the companys innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future. In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.

The Essence of Scenarios

The Essence of Scenarios
Title The Essence of Scenarios PDF eBook
Author Angela Wilkinson
Publisher
Pages 168
Release 2014
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 9789048522101

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Transformative Scenario Planning

Transformative Scenario Planning
Title Transformative Scenario Planning PDF eBook
Author Adam Kahane
Publisher Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Pages 150
Release 2012-10-15
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1609944909

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Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.

7 Deadly Scenarios

7 Deadly Scenarios
Title 7 Deadly Scenarios PDF eBook
Author Andrew Krepinevich
Publisher Bantam
Pages 352
Release 2009-01-27
Genre Social Science
ISBN 0553905619

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A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border. Major American cities are leveled by black-market nukes. China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown. Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons. What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How will we respond? Are we prepared? These are the questions that Andrew F. Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling book. As a military expert and consultant, Krepinevich must think the unthinkable based on the latest intelligence and geopolitical trends—and devise a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality. As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the real ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take—and what we must do to prepare before it’s too late.

Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning
Title Scenario Planning PDF eBook
Author Gill Ringland
Publisher Choir Press
Pages 492
Release 2014-03
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 9781909300545

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A guide to help business managers implement scenario techniques to manage the uncertainties of the future.

Scenario Planning in Organizations

Scenario Planning in Organizations
Title Scenario Planning in Organizations PDF eBook
Author Thomas J. Chermack
Publisher Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Pages 379
Release 2011-02-14
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1605099082

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Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation

Strategic Reframing

Strategic Reframing
Title Strategic Reframing PDF eBook
Author Rafael Ramírez
Publisher Oxford University Press
Pages 275
Release 2016
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 0198745699

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This book provides clear information and guidance on how to do scenario planning to support strategy and public policy. The book describes the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA), an intellectually rigorous and practical methodolgy.