In this paper, we estimate the effect of the 1918 Influenza pandemic on income inequality in Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy exploits the exogenous diffusion of influenza across municipalities due to the presence of infected soldiers on leave from World War I operations at the peak of the pandemic. Our measures of income inequality come from newly digitized historical administrative records on Italian taxpayer incomes. We show that in the short-/medium-run (i.e., after five years), income inequality is higher in Italian municipalities more afflicted by the pandemic. The effect is mostly explained by a reduction in the share of income held by poorer people. Finally, we provide initial evidence that these differences in income inequality persist even after a century.

This Pivot book provides a framework for understanding the economic and potentially unequal effects of pandemics, focusing closely on the Spanish Flu. It provides an in-depth analysis of the different effects of the Spanish Flu on the economy from unequal mortality to wages, housing and output. There is a general review of the literature but an important feature of this book is that it explains results using data from Spain, an ideal country to perform this exercise, as its mortality data is not affected by the First World War. Spain was also developed enough to have reliable data, but it was very heterogeneous across regions which will allow a comparison of more and less developed regions. No other book exists that offers a comprehensive and data-driven view of the effects of the Spanish Flu, which is the closest pandemic example to Covid-19. With the outbreak of Covid-19 increasing the need to learn about the economic effects of pandemics, this book will be of interest to academics and students of economic history, macroeconomics (economic crises) and economic development, as well being accessible for the general reader.

The possibility of a worldwide influenza pandemic in the near future is of growing concern for many countries around the globe. Many predictions of the economic and social costs of a modern-day influenza pandemic are based on the effects of the influenza pandemic of 1918. This report begins by providing a brief historical back-ground on the 1918 influenza pandemic, a short-lived, but tragic event. Detailed influenza mortality statistics for cities and states are presented which provide insight into mortality differences based on race, income and place of residence. Next, anecdotal evidence on the economic effects of the 1918 influenza are reported using newspaper articles published during the pandemic. This report also includes a survey of economic research on the subject, and a list of the likely economic effects of a modern-day influenza pandemic. Tables and figures. This is a print on demand report.

#1 New York Times bestseller “Barry will teach you almost everything you need to know about one of the deadliest outbreaks in human history.”—Bill Gates "Monumental... an authoritative and disturbing morality tale."—Chicago Tribune The strongest weapon against pandemic is the truth. Read why in the definitive account of the 1918 Flu Epidemic. Magisterial in its breadth of perspective and depth of research, The Great Influenza provides us with a precise and sobering model as we confront the epidemics looming on our own horizon. As Barry concludes, "The final lesson of 1918, a simple one yet one most difficult to execute, is that...those in authority must retain the public's trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one. Lincoln said that first, and best. A leader must make whatever horror exists concrete. Only then will people be able to break it apart." At the height of World War I, history’s most lethal influenza virus erupted in an army camp in Kansas, moved east with American troops, then exploded, killing as many as 100 million people worldwide. It killed more people in twenty-four months than AIDS killed in twenty-four years, more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century. But this was not the Middle Ages, and 1918 marked the first collision of science and epidemic disease.

Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality (Furceri, Loungani, Ostry and Pizzuto, 2020). In this paper, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers (IMF 2020; Stiglitz 2020; Sandbu 2020b) that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.

The Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-19 was the worst pandemic of modern times, claiming over 30 million lives in less than six months. In the hardest hit societies, everything else was put aside in a bid to cope with its ravages. It left millions orphaned and medical science desperate to find its cause. Despite the magnitude of its impact, few scholarly attempts have been made to examine this calamity in its many-sided complexity. On a global, multidisciplinary scale, the book seeks to apply the insights of a wide range of social and medical sciences to an investigation of the pandemic. Topics covered include the historiography of the pandemic, its virology, the enormous demographic impact, the medical and governmental responses it elicited, and its long-term effects, particularly the recent attempts to identify the precise causative virus from specimens taken from flu victims in 1918, or victims buried in the Arctic permafrost at that time.