The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies
Title The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies PDF eBook
Author Robert Shimer
Publisher
Pages 44
Release 2003
Genre Labor supply
ISBN

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This paper argues that a broad class of search models cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the U.S., the vacancy-unemployment ratio is 20 times as volatile as average labor productivity, while under weak assumptions, search models predict that the vacancy-unemployment ratio and labor productivity have nearly the same variance. I establish this claim both using analytical comparative statics in a very general deterministic search model and using simulations of a stochastic version of the model. I show that a shock that changes average labor productivity primarily alters the present value of wages, generating only a small movement along a downward sloping Beveridge curve (unemployment-vacancy locus). A shock to the job destruction rate generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the shock is only slightly amplified and the model exhibits virtually no propagation. I reconcile these findings with an existing literature and argue that the source of the model's failure is lack of wage rigidity, a consequence of the assumption that wages are determined by Nash bargaining

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies
Title The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies PDF eBook
Author
Publisher
Pages
Release 2005
Genre
ISBN

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The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Across OECD Countries

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Across OECD Countries
Title The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Across OECD Countries PDF eBook
Author Pedro S. Amaral
Publisher
Pages 52
Release 2014
Genre
ISBN

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We show that the inability of a standardly calibrated labor search-and-matching model to account for labor market volatility extends beyond the U.S. to a set of OECD countries. That is, the volatility puzzle is ubiquitous. We argue cross-country data is helpful in scrutinizing between potential solutions to this puzzle. To illustrate this, we show that the solution proposed in Hagedorn and Manovskii (2008) continues to deliver counterfactually low volatility in countries where labor productivity persistence and/or steady-state job-finding rates are sufficiently low. Moreover, the model's ability to generate high enough volatility depends on vacancy-filling-rate levels that seem counterfactual outside the U.S.

The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies in the US and Europe

The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies in the US and Europe
Title The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies in the US and Europe PDF eBook
Author Alejandro Justiniano
Publisher
Pages 70
Release 2011
Genre Business cycles
ISBN

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We set-up a real business cycle model with search and matching frictions driven by several shocks, which nests full Nash Bargaining and wage rigidity as special cases and includes other transmission mechanisms suggested by the literature for the propagation and amplification of disturbances. The model is estimated using full information methods for two Anglo-Saxon countries (the US and the UK), two Continental European countries (France and Germany) and two Scandinavian countries (Norway and Sweden). We conduct inference with mixed frequency data, combining quarterly series for unemployment, vacancies, GDP, consumption, and investment, with annual data on unemployment flows. Parameters and shocks are estimated separately for each country, which can then vary in terms of search and hiring costs, workers' bargaining power, unemployment benefits levels, wage rigidity and the stochastic properties of disturbances. Overall, the structural model accounts reasonably well for differences in labor market dynamics observed between the two sides of the Atlantic and within Europe. Our estimates indicate that there is considerable cross-country variation in the contribution of technology shocks to the cyclical fluctuations of the labor market. Technology shocks alone replicate remarkably well the volatility in vacancies, unemployment and finding probabilities observed in US, with mixed success in Europe. In contrast, matching shocks and job destruction shocks play a larger role in most European countries relative to the US.

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited
Title The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited PDF eBook
Author Marcus Hagedorn
Publisher
Pages 48
Release 2008
Genre Business cycles
ISBN

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The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemp, Oyment and Vacancies Revisited

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemp, Oyment and Vacancies Revisited
Title The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemp, Oyment and Vacancies Revisited PDF eBook
Author Marcus Hagedorn
Publisher
Pages 53
Release 2008
Genre
ISBN

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Recently, a number of authors have argued that the standard search model cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies, given shocks of a plausible magnitude. We use data on the cost of vacancy creation and cyclicality of wages to identify the two key parameters of the model the value of non-market activity and the bargaining weights. Our calibration implies that the model is, in fact, consistent with the data.

The cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revised

The cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revised
Title The cyclical behaviour of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revised PDF eBook
Author Marcus Hagedorn
Publisher
Pages 53
Release 2008
Genre
ISBN

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