The global economy deteriorated in a matter of months due to governments’ mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. General observers may describe this event as “unforeseen,” but they fail to look at the patterns of the past that reveal the future. Cyclical behavior dominates every facet of our world, including warfare, civil unrest, and even pandemics. “The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus” is the most comprehensive review of the war cycle from the beginning of recorded history. The civil unrest prevailing on a worldwide basis can be traced to events of the past, as it is cyclically on time for a revolution. However, the current pandemic is by no means a natural occurrence—this a deliberate attempt to radicalize the world in the vision of those pulling strings behind the curtain. This book exposes the truth, explaining why the coronavirus outbreak destroyed the global economy, the culprits, and what we can expect in the short-term and long-term volatile future.

The global economy deteriorated in a matter of months due to governments' mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak. General observers may describe this event as "unforeseen," but they fail to look at the patterns of the past that reveal the future. Cyclical behavior dominates every facet of our world, including warfare, civil unrest, and even pandemics. "The Cycle of War and the Coronavirus" is the most comprehensive review of the war cycle from the beginning of recorded history. The civil unrest prevailing on a worldwide basis can be traced to events of the past, as it is cyclically on time for a revolution. However, the current pandemic is by no means a natural occurrence-this a deliberate attempt to radicalize the world in the vision of those pulling strings behind the curtain. This book exposes the truth, explaining why the coronavirus outbreak destroyed the global economy, the culprits, and what we can expect in the short-term and long-term volatile future.

A vivid, sweeping, and “fact-filled” (Booklist, starred review) history of mankind’s battles with infectious disease that “contextualizes the COVID-19 pandemic” (Publishers Weekly)—for readers of the #1 New York Times bestsellers Yuval Harari’s Sapiens and John Barry’s The Great Influenza. For four thousand years, the size and vitality of cities, economies, and empires were heavily determined by infection. Striking humanity in waves, the cycle of plagues set the tempo of civilizational growth and decline, since common response to the threat was exclusion—quarantining the sick or keeping them out. But the unprecedented hygiene and medical revolutions of the past two centuries have allowed humanity to free itself from the hold of epidemic cycles—resulting in an urbanized, globalized, and unimaginably wealthy world. However, our development has lately become precarious. Climate and population fluctuations and factors such as global trade have left us more vulnerable than ever to newly emerging plagues. Greater global cooperation toward sustainable health is urgently required—such as the international efforts to manufacture and distribute a COVID-19 vaccine—with millions of lives and trillions of dollars at stake. “A timely, lucid look at the role of pandemics in history” (Kirkus Reviews), The Plague Cycle reveals the relationship between civilization, globalization, prosperity, and infectious disease over the past five millennia. It harnesses history, economics, and public health, and charts humanity’s remarkable progress, providing a fascinating and astute look at the cyclical nature of infectious disease.

This powerful report on what went wrong—and right—with America’s Covid response, from a team of 34 experts, shows how Americans faced the worst peacetime catastrophe of modern times Our national leaders have drifted into treating the pandemic as though it were an unavoidable natural catastrophe, repeating a depressing cycle of panic followed by neglect. So a remarkable group of practitioners and scholars from many backgrounds came together determined to discover and learn lessons from this latest world war. Lessons from the Covid War is plain-spoken and clear sighted. It cuts through the enormous jumble of information to make some sense of it all and answer: What just happened to us, and why? And crucially, how, next time, could we do better? Because there will be a next time. The Covid war showed Americans that their wondrous scientific knowledge had run far ahead of their organized ability to apply it in practice. Improvising to fight this war, many Americans displayed ingenuity and dedication. But they struggled with systems that made success difficult and failure easy. This book shows how Americans can come together, learn hard truths, build on what worked, and prepare for global emergencies to come. A joint effort from: Danielle Allen • John M. Barry • John Bridgeland • Michael Callahan • Nicholas A. Christakis • Doug Criscitello • Charity Dean • Victor Dzau • Gary Edson • Ezekiel Emanuel • Ruth Faden • Baruch Fischhoff • Margaret “Peggy” Hamburg • Melissa Harvey • Richard Hatchett • David Heymann • Kendall Hoyt • Andrew Kilianski • James Lawler • Alexander J. Lazar • James Le Duc • Marc Lipsitch • Anup Malani • Monique K. Mansoura • Mark McClellan • Carter Mecher • Michael Osterholm • David A. Relman • Robert Rodriguez • Carl Schramm • Emily Silverman • Kristin Urquiza • Rajeev Venkayya • Philip Zelikow

"This book’s great service is that it challenges us to consider the ways in which our institutions and systems, and the assumptions, positions and divisions that undergird them, leave us ill prepared for the next crisis."—Robert Rubin, The New York Times Book Review "Full of valuable insight and telling details, this may well be the best thing to read if you want to know what happened in 2020." --Paul Krugman, New York Review of Books Deftly weaving finance, politics, business, and the global human experience into one tight narrative, a tour-de-force account of 2020, the year that changed everything--from the acclaimed author of Crashed. The shocks of 2020 have been great and small, disrupting the world economy, international relations and the daily lives of virtually everyone on the planet. Never before has the entire world economy contracted by 20 percent in a matter of weeks nor in the historic record of modern capitalism has there been a moment in which 95 percent of the world's economies were suffering all at the same time. Across the world hundreds of millions have lost their jobs. And over it all looms the specter of pandemic, and death. Adam Tooze, whose last book was universally lauded for guiding us coherently through the chaos of the 2008 crash, now brings his bravura analytical and narrative skills to a panoramic and synthetic overview of our current crisis. By focusing on finance and business, he sets the pandemic story in a frame that casts a sobering new light on how unprepared the world was to fight the crisis, and how deep the ruptures in our way of living and doing business are. The virus has attacked the economy with as much ferocity as it has our health, and there is no vaccine arriving to address that. Tooze's special gift is to show how social organization, political interests, and economic policy interact with devastating human consequences, from your local hospital to the World Bank. He moves fluidly from the impact of currency fluctuations to the decimation of institutions--such as health-care systems, schools, and social services--in the name of efficiency. He starkly analyzes what happened when the pandemic collided with domestic politics (China's party conferences; the American elections), what the unintended consequences of the vaccine race might be, and the role climate change played in the pandemic. Finally, he proves how no unilateral declaration of 'independence" or isolation can extricate any modern country from the global web of travel, goods, services, and finance.

The economic theories that dominated the field during the 20th century have failed us and empowered government to believe they can manipulate the business cycle. Every economic theory presented post-Marxism has assumed that the complexity of the business cycle can be reduced to a single cause and effect. To date, no attempt to manipulate the cycle has prevented a recession or financial crisis. We now face a truly monumental crisis. Central banks around the world are trapped. Their attempt to stimulate the economy through Quantitative Easing and rate manipulation has disastrously failed. The central banks have primarily purchased government debt, effectively keeping governments on life support by allowing them to issue new debt at substantially lower rates. In addition to catastrophic Quantitative Easing policies, political fiscal spending on various programs and agencies has burdened governments with a debt that they can never repay. The future crisis is one created by government. This time, we are not likely to fix the problem without major political reform, which all governments will resist. These policies have led many to assume that government can freely create money without inflation. After creating trillions of dollars to buy government debt with no appreciable inflation, many conclude that everything has changed. They are calling this the Modern Monetary Theory. If they are correct, then why bother to have taxes or borrow money continuously with no intention of paying off national debts? Governments, in modern theory, can simply create an endless supply of money to create a new modern version of Utopia. Can we throw away all economic history for an experiment that could unravel civilization if the theory proves to be wrong? What are the risks? Can it really be that easy? Are there any examples from the past that we can look to for answers?

Two of America's leading national security experts offer a definitive account of the global impact of COVID-19 and the political shock waves it will have on the United States and the world order in the 21st Century. “Informed by history, reporting, and a truly global perspective, this is an indispensable first draft of history and blueprint for how we can move forward.” —Ben Rhodes The COVID-19 pandemic killed millions, infected hundreds of millions, and laid bare the deep vulnerabilities and inequalities of our interconnected world. The accompanying economic crash was the worst since the Great Depression, with the International Monetary Fund estimating that it will cost over $22 trillion in global wealth over the next few years. Over two decades of progress in reducing extreme poverty was erased, just in the space of a few months. Already fragile states in every corner of the globe were further hollowed out. The brewing clash between the United States and China boiled over and the worldwide contest between democracy and authoritarianism deepened. It was a truly global crisis necessitating a collective response—and yet international cooperation almost entirely broke down, with key world leaders hardly on speaking terms. Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright's Aftershocks offers a riveting and comprehensive account of one of the strangest and most consequential years on record. Drawing on interviews with officials from around the world and extensive research, the authors tell the story of how nationalism and major power rivalries constrained the response to the worst pandemic in a century. They demonstrate the myriad ways in which the crisis exposed the limits of the old international order and how the reverberations from COVID-19 will be felt for years to come.