SCOTT (copy 1): from the John Holmes Library collection.

In 1982, three conservationists in the United States discussed a growing concern they shared about the long-term biological consequences of nuclear war; they wondered what such a war would do to the air, the water, the soils 1 the natural systems upon which all life depends. I was one of those three; the others were executives of two philanthropic foundations, Robert L. Allen of the Henry P. Kendall Foundation and the late Robert W. Scrivner of the Rockefeller Family Fund. Together we began trying to! find out what the scientific community was doing about the problem and what steps could be taken to alert the environmental movement to the need to address the subject. We knew that a large-scale nuclear war might kill from 300 million to a billion people outright and that another billion could suffer serious injuries requiring immediate medical attention, care that would be largely unavailable. But what kind of world wouldisurvivors face? Would the long-term consequences prove to humanity and survival of all species than the to be even more serious immediate effects? We found that comparatively little scientific research had been done about the envifonmental consequences of a nuclear war of the magni tude that toda,y's huge arsenal could unleash . .

This report assesses the potential policy implications of new findings concerning the long-term atmospheric, climatic and biological effects of nuclear war, commonly referred to as nuclear winter. A summary of the prominent study of these effects, The Global Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack and Sagan (TTAPS) is provided. Potential policy implications are examined regarding nuclear weapons strategy and deterrence, extended deterrence, targeting, C3I and damage assessment, future R & D and force modernization, strategic defense systems, arms control, civil defense and the strategic implications of U.S. and Soviet perceptions of nuclear winter. Issues and questions for further research are addressed. Keywords: Nuclear Weapons Effects; Climatic Effects of Nuclear War; Deterrence; Targeting; Nuclear Strategy; U.S.-Soviet Relations; and U.S. Security.

Published on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment. Discusses the climactic changes which could result in worldwide famine.