The Art of Causal Conjecture
Title | The Art of Causal Conjecture PDF eBook |
Author | Glenn Shafer |
Publisher | MIT Press |
Pages | 554 |
Release | 1996 |
Genre | Computers |
ISBN | 9780262193689 |
In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management
Title | Causal Models and Intelligent Data Management PDF eBook |
Author | Alex Gammerman |
Publisher | Springer Science & Business Media |
Pages | 193 |
Release | 2012-12-06 |
Genre | Computers |
ISBN | 3642586481 |
The need to electronically store, manipulate and analyze large-scale, high-dimensional data sets requires new computational methods. This book presents new intelligent data management methods and tools, including new results from the field of inference. Leading experts also map out future directions of intelligent data analysis. This book will be a valuable reference for researchers exploring the interdisciplinary area between statistics and computer science as well as for professionals applying advanced data analysis methods in industry.
The Art of Conjecture
Title | The Art of Conjecture PDF eBook |
Author | Bertrand de Jouvenel |
Publisher | Transaction Publishers |
Pages | 326 |
Release | |
Genre | |
ISBN | 1412847087 |
Actual Causality
Title | Actual Causality PDF eBook |
Author | Joseph Y. Halpern |
Publisher | MIT Press |
Pages | 240 |
Release | 2016-08-12 |
Genre | Computers |
ISBN | 0262035022 |
Explores actual causality, and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. The goal is to arrive at a definition of causality that matches our natural language usage and is helpful, for example, to a jury deciding a legal case, a programmer looking for the line of code that cause some software to fail, or an economist trying to determine whether austerity caused a subsequent depression.
Causality
Title | Causality PDF eBook |
Author | Judea Pearl |
Publisher | Cambridge University Press |
Pages | 487 |
Release | 2009-09-14 |
Genre | Computers |
ISBN | 052189560X |
Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artificial intelligence ...
The Book of Why
Title | The Book of Why PDF eBook |
Author | Judea Pearl |
Publisher | Basic Books |
Pages | 432 |
Release | 2018-05-15 |
Genre | Computers |
ISBN | 0465097618 |
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
The Science of Conjecture
Title | The Science of Conjecture PDF eBook |
Author | James Franklin |
Publisher | JHU Press |
Pages | 520 |
Release | 2015-08 |
Genre | History |
ISBN | 1421418800 |
The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.