This paper examines the quantitative importance of temporal aggregation bias in distorting parameter estimates and hypothesis tests. Our strategy is to consider two empirical examples in which temporal aggregation bias has the potential to account for results which are widely viewed as being anomalous from the perspective of particular economic models. Our first example investigates the possibility that temporal aggregation bias can lead to spurious Granger causality relationships. The quantitative importance of this possibility is examined in the context of Granger causal relations between the growth rates of money and various measures of aggregate output. Our second example investigates the possibility that temporal aggregation bias can account for the slow speeds of adjustment typically obtained with stock adjustment models. The quantitative importance of this possibility is examined in the context of a particular class of continuous and discrete time equilibriurn models of inventories and sales. The different models are compared on the basis of the behavioral implications of the estimated values of the structural parameters which we obtain and their overall statistical performance. The empirical results from both examples provide support for the view that temporal aggregation bias can be quantitatively important in the sense of Significantly distorting inference.

A collection of papers from leading thinkers to celebrate the work of the late Wynne Godley, and his enormous contribution to the field of monetary economics. Chapters include in-depth discussions of the revolutionary economic modelling systems that Godley introduced, as well as his prescient concerns about the global financial crash.

The recent economic events driven by the great financial crisis of 2007-08 has challenged some "dogma", highlighting various limits and drawbacks of current paradigms. The crisis showed the limitations of monetary policy and led to a revaluation of what levels of public debt can be considered safe. This volume aims to refresh the debate on some important long-run macroeconomic issues from new and fresh perspectives. Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Policy raises a number of questions relating to the challenges faced by macroeconomic theory and policies. The common line is the long run and policy perspective. The first part of the book is devoted to the theory of growth and productivity. The second part concentrates on long-run effects of fiscal and monetary policy. Specifically, topics investigated by the international range of authors are the theory of optimal growth, the productivity policies and production function estimations, demand- vs. supply- driven growth, optimal debt default and the incompleteness of financial markets, the long-run optimal inflation target and its relationship with public finance, the long term effects of government budget constraints on growth, and effect on optimal policies in non-market clearing environment. The book will be of interest to postgraduates, researchers, and academics studying macroeconomics and fiscal policies.

This monograph presents a continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom incorporating stochastic trends. It describes the model in detail to permit a rigorous mathematical analysis of its steady-state and stability properties, thus providing a valuable check on the capacity of the model to generate plausible long-run behaviour.