The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks. The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.

David O. Loomis Illinois State University The explosive growth of the Internet has caught most industry experts off guard. While data communications was expected to be the "wave of the future," few industry observers foresaw how rapid the change in focus from voice communications towards data would be. Understanding the data communications revolution has become an urgent priority for many in the telecommunications industry. Demand analysis and forecasting are critical tools to understanding these trends for both Internet access and Internet backbone service. Businesses have led residential customers in the demand for data services, but residential demand is currently increasing exponentiall y. Even as business demand for data communications is becoming better understood, residential broadband access demand is still largely unexplored. Cable modems and ADSL appear to be the current residential broadband choices yet demand elasticities and econometric model-based forecasts for these services are not currently available. The responsiveness of customers to price and income changes and customer's perceptions of the tradeoff in product characteristics between cable modems and ADSL is largely unknown. Demand for Internet access is derived from the demand for applications which utilize this access; access is not demanded independent of its usage. Thus it is important to understand Internet applications in order to understand the demand for access.