China now faces the difficult choice of whether to pursue a food self-sufficiency policy or further integrate its agriculture into the world market. China's choice will have profound implications for the world trading system, as well as for its own economy. At the same time, China needs to reform its land tenure and grain marketing systems. This book examines these majority policy issues using up-to-date information and empirical evidence.

This book identifies the main challenges Chinese agriculture is confronting and considers how these challenges might be met. The performance of China's agricultural production is comprehensively assessed while the factors that affect agricultural productivity are examined through detailed econometric analysis and up to date nationally representative data.

To feed its 1.2 billion people, China may soon have to import so much grain that this action could trigger unprecedented rises in world food prices. In Who Will Feed China: Wake-up Call for a Small Planet, Lester Brown shows that even as water becomes more scarce in a land where 80 percent of the grain crop is irrigated, as per-acre yield gains are erased by the loss of cropland to industrialization, and as food production stagnates, China still increases its population by the equivalent of a new Beijing each year. When Japan, a nation of just 125 million, began to import food, world grain markets rejoiced. But when China, a market ten times bigger, starts importing, there may not be enough grain in the world to meet that need - and food prices will rise steeply for everyone. Analysts foresaw that the recent four-year doubling of income for China's 1.2 billion consumers would increase food demand, especially for meat, eggs, and beer. But these analysts assumed that food production would rise to meet those demands. Brown shows that cropland losses are heavy in countries that are densely populated before industrialization, and that these countries quickly become net grain importers. We can see that process now in newspaper accounts from China as the government struggles with this problem.

Fertilizer has helped the growth of agriculture for decades. However, its overuse in some regions has caused environmental and health problems due to pollution and contamination of groundwater. Fertilizer quality is another cause for concern in many countries, as the actual nutrient content may not match the labeled content on the packaging. The North China Plain is a region affected by both fertilizer overuse and quality problems. This study delves into the issue using economic models and survey data of farm households. Is the effectiveness of fertilizer overstated? How do farmers respond to uncertainty in fertilizer quality? Can they differentiate between good and poor quality fertilizer?

This book addresses the dynamics of China's grain production, consumption and trade with a particular emphasis on China's demand for feedgrain vis-a-vis its demand for foodgrain and the likely implications of this on the international grain trade given that China is now a member of the WTO. The book provides the reader with insight into the latest developments in China's foodgrain and feedgrain consumption and draws attention to the rising importance of feedgrain (and the relative decline in importance of foodgrain) in the overall Chinese grain economy. It also offers deliberations on many important issues concerning China's grains that are currently hotly debated. The book can be used as a valuable reference by government officials, grain traders, food market analysts, researchers and university students who are interested in China's food issues in general and foodgrain and feedgrain issues in particular.

China is perhaps the most prominent example of a developing country that has transitioned from taxing to supporting agriculture. In recent years, Chinese price supports and subsidies have risen at an accelerating pace after they were linked to rising production costs. Per-acre subsidy payments to grain producers now equal 7 to 15 percent of those producers' gross income, but grain payments appear to have little influence on production decisions. Chinese authorities began raising price supports annually to bolster incentives, and Chinese prices for major farm commodities are rising above world prices, helping to attract a surge of agricultural imports. U.S. agricultural exports to China tripled in value during the period when China's agricultural support was accelerating. Overall, China's expansion of support is loosely constrained by World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments, but the country's price-support programs could exceed WTO limits in coming years. Chinese officials promise to continue increasing domestic policy support for agriculture, but the mix of policies may evolve as the Chinese agricultural sector becomes more commercialized and faces competitive pressures.