As the complexity of our world increases systems thinking is emerging as a critical factor for success, and even survival. How then can people become skilled systems thinkers? The most effective learning experiences combine experience with reflection, theory with practice. Traditionally, theory was taught in school and university, and experience was gained in life outside those walls. But in the world of complex dynamic systems such as a business, society, or ecosystem, everyday experience fails because the time horizon and scope of the systems is so vast-we never experience the majority of the effects of our decisions. And without relevant experience, theory is uninteresting to students. The old ways of learning fail. When experiments in the real world are impossible, simulation becomes the main way we can learn effectively about the dynamics of complex systems. For this reason I'm pleased to introduce Juan Martin Garcia's book 'Theory and Practical Exercises of System Dynamics'. Juan combines theory and practice, experience and opportunities for reflection, so that newcomers to the field can learn for themselves how complex dynamic systems work. The examples span a range of important economic and social issues, from the aging of the population in developed economies to the course of contagious diseases to the accumulation of pollutants in the environment; everyone will find some examples here of direct personal interest. The modeling exercises guide the learner through the process of building a working simulation; students will not only learn about the issues addressed, and in the use of state of the art simulation software, but will develop skill in the modeling process. Juan has written a delightful first introduction to the field of system dynamics and complexity, and provides a much-needed addition to the literature available. John D. Sterman Index System Dynamics - Identifying the Problem - Defining the System - The Boundaries of a System - The Causal Diagram - Feedback - The Limiting Factor - The Key Factors - Classification of Systems - Generic Structures - World Models Building a Model - Flow Diagrams - Computer Simulation - Behaviour of the Model - Analysis of the System - Weaknesses of Models Guide to Creating a Model - Creating a Causal Diagram - Creating a Flow Diagram - Writing the conclusions Environmental System Dynamics - Population Growth - Modeling the Ecology of a Natural Reserve - Effects of the Intensive Farming - The Fishery of Shrimp - Rabbits and Foxes - A Study of Hogs - Ingestion of Toxins - The Barays of Angkor Management System Dynamics - Production and Inventory - Global CO2 Emissions - How to work more and better - Managing of Faults - Project Dynamics - Innovatory Companies - Quality Control - The impact of a Business Plan Social System Dynamics - Filling a Glass - Dynamics of a Segmented Population - The Young Ambitious Worker - Development of an Epidemic - The Dynamics of Two Clocks Mechanical System Dynamics - Dynamics of a Tank - Study of the Oscillatory Movements - Design of a Chemical Reactor The author Juan Martín García is a teacher and worldwide recognized expert in System Dynamics, with more than twenty years of experience in this field. Ph.D. Industrial Engineer (Spain) and Postgraduated Diploma in Business Dynamics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT (USA). He teaches Vensim online courses in http://vensim.com/vensim-online-courses/ based on System Dynamics.

Hundreds of grassroots groups have sprung up around the world to teach programming, web design, robotics, and other skills outside traditional classrooms. These groups exist so that people don't have to learn these things on their own, but ironically, their founders and instructors are often teaching themselves how to teach. There's a better way. This book presents evidence-based practices that will help you create and deliver lessons that work and build a teaching community around them. Topics include the differences between different kinds of learners, diagnosing and correcting misunderstandings, teaching as a performance art, what motivates and demotivates adult learners, how to be a good ally, fostering a healthy community, getting the word out, and building alliances with like-minded groups. The book includes over a hundred exercises that can be done individually or in groups, over 350 references, and a glossary to help you navigate educational jargon.

This book addresses two significant research areas in an interdependent fashion. It is first of all a comprehensive but concise text that covers the recently developed and widely applicable methods of qualitative choice analysis, illustrating the general theory through simulation models of automobile demand and use. It is also a detailed study of automobile demand and use, presenting forecasts based on these powerful new techniques. The book develops the general principles that underlie qualitative choice models that are now being applied in numerous fields in addition to transportation, such as housing, labor, energy, communications, and criminology. The general form, derivation, and estimation of qualitative choice models are explained, and the major models - logit, probit, and GEV - are discussed in detail. And continuous/discrete models are introduced. In these, qualitative choice methods and standard regression techniques are combined to analyze situations that neither alone can accurately forecast. Summarizing previous research on auto demand, the book shows how qualitative choice methods can be used by applying them to specific auto-related decisions as the aggregate of individuals' choices. The simulation model that is constructed is a significant improvement over older models, and should prove more useful to agencies and organizations requiring accurate forecasting of auto demand and use for planning and policy development. The book concludes with an actual case study based on a model designed for the investigations of the California Energy Commission. Kenneth Train is Visiting Associate Professor in Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and Director of Economic Research at Cambridge Systematics, Inc., also in Berkeley. Qualitative Choice Analysisis included in The MIT Press Transportation Studies Series, edited by Marvin L. Manheim.

Optimal Regulation addresses the central issue of regulatory economics - how toregulate firms in a way that induces them to produce and price "optimally." It synthesizes the majorfindings of an extensive theoretical literature on what constitutes optimality in various situationsand which regulatory mechanisms can be used to achieve it. It is the first text to provide aunified, modern, and nontechnical treatment of the field.The book includes models for regulatingoptimal output, tariffs, and surplus subsidy schemes, and presents all of the material graphically,with clear explanations of often highly technical topics.Kenneth E. Train is Associate AdjunctProfessor in the Department of Economics and Graduate School of Public Policy at the University ofCalifornia, Berkeley. He is also Principal of the firm Cambridge Systematics.Topics include: Thecost structure of natural monopoly (economies of scale and scope). Characterization of firstandsecond-best optimality. Surplus subsidy schemes for attaining first-best optimality. Ramsey pricesand the Vogelsang-Finsinger mechanism for attaining them. Time-ofuse (TOU) prices and Riordan'smechanisms for attaining the optimal TOU prices' Multipart and self-selecting tariffs, and Sibley'smethod for using self-selecting tariffs to achieve optimality. The Averch-Johnson model of howrate-of-return regulation induces inefficiencies. Analysis of regulation based on the firm's returnon Output, costs, or sales. Price-cap regulation. Regulatory treatment of uncertainty and its impacton the firm's behavior. Methods of attaining optimality without direct regulation (contestability,auctioning the monopoly franchise.)