If you're looking for information on how to prepare for a short term natural disaster, this is not the book for you. Bestselling author, Jonathan Hollerman, will present evidence that America as we know it could be destroyed in the near future from the loss of America's electric grid or other societal collapse scenarios. Many preparedness "experts" severely underestimate the threat posed by millions of starving, desperate people. This preparedness guide will help you develop a plan to escape the deadly rioting and looting, showing you where you can take your family to keep them safe, even if you can't afford a fully- stocked survival retreat. Hollerman's in-depth expertise and recommendations will cover Bug Out Bags, SHTF Weapons, Tactical Gear, Survival Tools, Knives, Long Term Food Storage, Livestock, Bug Out Locations, Survival Retreat Recommendations, and much more...

The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not. The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

A powerful new theory of human nature suggests that our secret to success as a species is our unique friendliness “Brilliant, eye-opening, and absolutely inspiring—and a riveting read. Hare and Woods have written the perfect book for our time.”—Cass R. Sunstein, author of How Change Happens and co-author of Nudge For most of the approximately 300,000 years that Homo sapiens have existed, we have shared the planet with at least four other types of humans. All of these were smart, strong, and inventive. But around 50,000 years ago, Homo sapiens made a cognitive leap that gave us an edge over other species. What happened? Since Charles Darwin wrote about “evolutionary fitness,” the idea of fitness has been confused with physical strength, tactical brilliance, and aggression. In fact, what made us evolutionarily fit was a remarkable kind of friendliness, a virtuosic ability to coordinate and communicate with others that allowed us to achieve all the cultural and technical marvels in human history. Advancing what they call the “self-domestication theory,” Brian Hare, professor in the department of evolutionary anthropology and the Center for Cognitive Neuroscience at Duke University and his wife, Vanessa Woods, a research scientist and award-winning journalist, shed light on the mysterious leap in human cognition that allowed Homo sapiens to thrive. But this gift for friendliness came at a cost. Just as a mother bear is most dangerous around her cubs, we are at our most dangerous when someone we love is threatened by an “outsider.” The threatening outsider is demoted to sub-human, fair game for our worst instincts. Hare’s groundbreaking research, developed in close coordination with Richard Wrangham and Michael Tomasello, giants in the field of cognitive evolution, reveals that the same traits that make us the most tolerant species on the planet also make us the cruelest. Survival of the Friendliest offers us a new way to look at our cultural as well as cognitive evolution and sends a clear message: In order to survive and even to flourish, we need to expand our definition of who belongs.

The aim of this book is to bridge the gap between standard textbook models and a range of models where the dynamic structure of the data manifests itself fully. The common denominator of such models is stochastic processes. The authors show how counting processes, martingales, and stochastic integrals fit very nicely with censored data. Beginning with standard analyses such as Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox regression, the presentation progresses to the additive hazard model and recurrent event data. Stochastic processes are also used as natural models for individual frailty; they allow sensible interpretations of a number of surprising artifacts seen in population data. The stochastic process framework is naturally connected to causality. The authors show how dynamic path analyses can incorporate many modern causality ideas in a framework that takes the time aspect seriously. To make the material accessible to the reader, a large number of practical examples, mainly from medicine, are developed in detail. Stochastic processes are introduced in an intuitive and non-technical manner. The book is aimed at investigators who use event history methods and want a better understanding of the statistical concepts. It is suitable as a textbook for graduate courses in statistics and biostatistics.

In her analysis of some of the most interesting and important childrenÕs literature from Central America and the Caribbean, Ann Gonz‡lez uses postcolonial narrative theory to expose and decode what marginalized peoples say when they tell stories to their childrenÑand how the interpretations children give these stories today differ from the ways they have read them in the past. Gonz‡lez reads against the grain, deconstructing and critiquing dominant discourses to reveal consistent narrative patterns throughout the region that have helped children maneuver in a world dominated by powerful figuresÑfrom parents to agents of social control, political repression, and global takeover. Many of these stories are in some way lessons in resistance and survival in a world where Òthe toughest kid on the block,Ó often an outsider, demands that a group of children Òplay or pay,Ó on his terms. Gonz‡lez demonstrates that where traditional strategies have proposed the model of the ÒtricksterÓ or the Òparadoxically astute fool,Ó to mock the pretensions of the would-be oppressor, new trends indicate that the regionÕs childrenÑand those who write for themÑshow increasing interest in playing the game on their own terms, getting to know the Other, embracing difference, and redefining their identity and role within the new global culture. Resistance and Survival emphasizes the hope underlying this contemporary childrenÕs literature for a world in which all voices can be heard and valuedÑthe hope of an authentic happy ending.

Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws. Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis. Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enabling more experienced users to learn new techniques of data input and manipulation. Provides numerous examples of SAS code to illustrate each of the methods, along with step-by-step instructions to perform each technique. Highlights the strengths and limitations of each technique covered. Covering a wide scope of survival techniques and methods, from the introductory to the advanced, this book can be used as a useful reference book for planners, researchers, and professors who are working in settings involving various lifetime events. Scientists interested in survival analysis should find it a useful guidebook for the incorporation of survival data and methods into their projects.

This book presents a new theory for why political regimes emerge, and why they subsequently survive or break down. It then analyzes the emergence, survival and fall of democracies and dictatorships in Latin America since 1900. Scott Mainwaring and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán argue for a theoretical approach situated between long-term structural and cultural explanations and short-term explanations that look at the decisions of specific leaders. They focus on the political preferences of powerful actors - the degree to which they embrace democracy as an intrinsically desirable end and their policy radicalism - to explain regime outcomes. They also demonstrate that transnational forces and influences are crucial to understand regional waves of democratization. Based on extensive research into the political histories of all twenty Latin American countries, this book offers the first extended analysis of regime emergence, survival and failure for all of Latin America over a long period of time.