Elements of Surprise opens with an novel but narrow focus: how a particular cognitive bias, the "curse of knowledge," underwrites stories that rely on what it calls "well-made surprise," as seen in (for example) classic detective fiction--that is, surprises in novels, films, television, and plays that set us up to be fooled in ways we find pleasing and satisfying. But from there, the book expands its reach. At its core, "cursed" thinking underlies almost everything people write, say, and think about both other people and our own pasts. The more information we have about something, and the more experience we have with it, the harder it is to step outside that experience. What unfolds is both a fresh approach to mental heuristics and biases and an ambitious work of cognitive literary criticism. Elements of Surprise provides a new and exciting way of thinking about the mechanics of narrative, explored through thoughtful readings of classic, popular, and obscure texts.--

This report relates what professionals believe creates surprise, how they respond to it, and how the effects of surprise can be mitigated. RAND researchers interviewed representatives from 13 diverse professions and identified some common coping strategies, such as relying on past experience and trying to reduce the level of chaos in the environment.

The New York Times bestseller that gives readers a paradigm-shattering new way to think about motivation from the author of When: The Scientific Secrets of Perfect Timing Most people believe that the best way to motivate is with rewards like money—the carrot-and-stick approach. That's a mistake, says Daniel H. Pink (author of To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Motivating Others). In this provocative and persuasive new book, he asserts that the secret to high performance and satisfaction-at work, at school, and at home—is the deeply human need to direct our own lives, to learn and create new things, and to do better by ourselves and our world. Drawing on four decades of scientific research on human motivation, Pink exposes the mismatch between what science knows and what business does—and how that affects every aspect of life. He examines the three elements of true motivation—autonomy, mastery, and purpose-and offers smart and surprising techniques for putting these into action in a unique book that will change how we think and transform how we live.

Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.

Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. Surprise is one aspect of a broader discussion in the national security literature on innovative operational concepts, which may serve as force multipliers to enable the United States to get more out of existing capabilities. A follow up to CSIS’s highly successful 2018 study Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts, this report highlights several components of a successful surprise, including exploiting adversary vulnerabilities, using intelligence and technology, employing secrecy and deception, and doing the unexpected. The report also contains over a dozen vignettes illustrating potential future surprises.

We've all been there: a new school year starts and there's 8 months till your exams - that's plenty of time, right? Then there's 6 months, 3 months, 1 month and oh, now there's 2 weeks left and you haven't started studying... What happens next is a panic-induced mayhem of highlighting everything in the textbook (without even questioning if it's actually helpful). But I'm here to help you change this! In The Only Study Guide You'll Ever Need, I'll cover a range of different topics including: · How to get started and pick up that pen · Learning techniques that actually work (hello, science of memory!) · The dos and don'ts of timetabling · And combatting fear of failure, perfectionism, exam stress and so much more! As a fellow student now at university, I definitely don't have a PhD in Exam Etiquette but this is the book younger me needed. All I wanted was one place that had a variety of tried-and-tested methods with reassurance from someone who had recently been through the education system. The Only Study Guide You'll Ever Need is just that, and I have collected the best techniques and tools I wish I'd known earlier to help you get through your studies and smash your exams! Jade x

Rousell examines the rich and complex nuances of the science of surprise and shows us how we can use it strategically to enrich lives. Random events transform us. After studying formative events, moments that define us, for over three decades, Michael Rousell discovered that most of them took place during a spark of surprise. This breakthrough launched a fascinating journey from neuroscience to stand-up comedy. Rousell draws on research from a wide variety of brain science disciplines (cognition, motivation, neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, persuasion, evolution, and learning), then examines those who already use surprise strategically (comedians, film directors, entertainers, magicians, and novelists). This examination illustrates the hidden, yet critical features inherent in surprise, while demystifying the complexities. Surprise evolved as a mechanism to instantly change our beliefs. Rousell shows how surprising events produce invisible influence because they open a window to spontaneous belief change with no warning or conscious awareness. You’ll see how seemingly minor features of surprise create profound differences and can be used to strategically enrich lives, create positive mindsets, and maximize influence.