Based on material taught at the University of California, Berkeley, this textbook offers a modern, rigorous and comprehensive treatment of the methods of structural and system reliability analysis. It covers the first- and second-order reliability methods for components and systems, simulation methods, time- and space-variant reliability, and Bayesian parameter estimation and reliability updating. It also presents more advanced, state-of-the-art topics such as finite-element reliability methods, stochastic structural dynamics, reliability-based optimal design, and Bayesian networks. A wealth of well-designed examples connect theory with practice, with simple examples demonstrating mathematical concepts and larger examples demonstrating their applications. End-of-chapter homework problems are included throughout. Including all necessary background material from probability theory, and accompanied online by a solutions manual and PowerPoint slides for instructors, this is the ideal text for senior undergraduate and graduate students taking courses on structural and system reliability in departments of civil, environmental and mechanical engineering.

Publisher Description

During the last two decades more and more universities offer courses on modern structural reliability theory. A course on structural reliability theory is now a natural part of the curri culum for mechanical and structural engineering students. As a result of this, a number of textbooks have been published in this decade. In PlOst of these books it is shown how the reliability of single structural members can be evaluated in a rational way. The methods used are usually so-called level 2 methods, i. e. methods involving certain approximate iter ative calculations to obtain an approximate value of the probability of failure of the struc tural members. In these methods the joint probability distribution of relevant variables (re sistance variables, loads, etc. ) is simplified and the failure criteria are idealized in such a way that the reliability calculations can be performed without an unreasonable amount of work. In spite of the approximations and idealizations made it is believed that a rational treatment of uncertainties in structural engineering can be obtained by level 2 methods. Usually, in sufficient data are at hand to make a more advanced estimate of the reliability of a struc tural member. It has been recognized for many years that a fully satisfactory estimate of the reliability of a structure must be based on a systems approach. In some situations it is sufficient to estimate the reliability of the individual structural members of a structural system.

This volume contains 28 papers by renowned international experts on the latest advances in structural reliability methods and applications, engineering risk analysis and decision making, new optimization techniques and various applications in civil engineering. Moreover, several contributions focus on the assessment and optimization of existing str

This book addresses probabilistic methods for the evaluation of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis of these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature of the uncertainties and their interplay is then gradually developed. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text. The modular approach of the book allows the reader to navigate through the different stages of the methods.

This book provides readers with an understanding of the fundamentals and applications of structural reliability, stochastic finite element method, reliability analysis via stochastic expansion, and optimization under uncertainty. It examines the use of stochastic expansions, including polynomial chaos expansion and Karhunen-Loeve expansion for the reliability analysis of practical engineering problems.

The last decades have witnessed the development of methods for solving struc tural reliability problems, which emerged from the efforts of numerous re searchers all over the world. For the specific and most common problem of determining the probability of failure of a structural system in which the limit state function g( x) = 0 is only implicitly known, the proposed methods can be grouped into two main categories: • Methods based on the Taylor expansion of the performance function g(x) about the most likely failure point (the design point), which is determined in the solution process. These methods are known as FORM and SORM (First- and Second Order Reliability Methods, respectively). • Monte Carlo methods, which require repeated calls of the numerical (nor mally finite element) solver of the structural model using a random real ization of the basic variable set x each time. In the first category of methods only SORM can be considered of a wide applicability. However, it requires the knowledge of the first and second deriva tives of the performance function, whose calculation in several dimensions either implies a high computational effort when faced with finite difference techniques or special programs when using perturbation techniques, which nevertheless require the use of large matrices in their computations. In or der to simplify this task, use has been proposed of techniques that can be regarded as variants of the Response Surface Method.