David A. Freedman presents a definitive synthesis of his approach to statistical modeling and causal inference in the social sciences.

Simplifies the treatment of statistical inference focusing on how to specify and interpret models in the context of testing causal theories. Simple bivariate regression, multiple regression, multiple classification analysis, path analysis, logit regression, multinomial logit regression and survival models are among the subjects covered. Features an appendix of computer programs (for major statistical packages) that are used to generate illustrative examples contained in the chapters.

CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.

This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He illustrates the principles of modelling, and the pitfalls. The discussion shows you how to think about the critical issues - including the connection (or lack of it) between the statistical models and the real phenomena. The book is written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students in statistics, as well as students and professionals in the social and health sciences.

David A. Freedman presents here a definitive synthesis of his approach to causal inference in the social sciences. He explores the foundations and limitations of statistical modeling, illustrating basic arguments with examples from political science, public policy, law, and epidemiology. Freedman maintains that many new technical approaches to statistical modeling constitute not progress, but regress. Instead, he advocates a 'shoe leather' methodology, which exploits natural variation to mitigate confounding and relies on intimate knowledge of the subject matter to develop meticulous research designs and eliminate rival explanations. When Freedman first enunciated this position, he was met with scepticism, in part because it was hard to believe that a mathematical statistician of his stature would favor 'low-tech' approaches. But the tide is turning. Many social scientists now agree that statistical technique cannot substitute for good research design and subject matter knowledge. This book offers an integrated presentation of Freedman's views.

This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He illustrates the principles of modelling, and the pitfalls. The discussion shows you how to think about the critical issues - including the connection (or lack of it) between the statistical models and the real phenomena. The book is written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students in statistics, as well as students and professionals in the social and health sciences.

One of the primary motivations for clinical trials and observational studies of humans is to infer cause and effect. Disentangling causation from confounding is of utmost importance. Fundamentals of Causal Inference explains and relates different methods of confounding adjustment in terms of potential outcomes and graphical models, including standardization, difference-in-differences estimation, the front-door method, instrumental variables estimation, and propensity score methods. It also covers effect-measure modification, precision variables, mediation analyses, and time-dependent confounding. Several real data examples, simulation studies, and analyses using R motivate the methods throughout. The book assumes familiarity with basic statistics and probability, regression, and R and is suitable for seniors or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and data science as well as PhD students in a wide variety of other disciplines, including epidemiology, pharmacy, the health sciences, education, and the social, economic, and behavioral sciences. Beginning with a brief history and a review of essential elements of probability and statistics, a unique feature of the book is its focus on real and simulated datasets with all binary variables to reduce complex methods down to their fundamentals. Calculus is not required, but a willingness to tackle mathematical notation, difficult concepts, and intricate logical arguments is essential. While many real data examples are included, the book also features the Double What-If Study, based on simulated data with known causal mechanisms, in the belief that the methods are best understood in circumstances where they are known to either succeed or fail. Datasets, R code, and solutions to odd-numbered exercises are available at www.routledge.com.