This book commemorates the scientific contributions of distinguished statistician, Andrei Yakovlev. It reflects upon Dr. Yakovlev’s many research interests including stochastic modeling and the analysis of micro-array data, and throughout the book it emphasizes applications of the theory in biology, medicine and public health. The contributions to this volume are divided into two parts. Part A consists of original research articles, which can be roughly grouped into four thematic areas: (i) branching processes, especially as models for cell kinetics, (ii) multiple testing issues as they arise in the analysis of biologic data, (iii) applications of mathematical models and of new inferential techniques in epidemiology, and (iv) contributions to statistical methodology, with an emphasis on the modeling and analysis of survival time data. Part B consists of methodological research reported as a short communication, ending with some personal reflections on research fields associated with Andrei and on his approach to science. The Appendix contains an abbreviated vitae and a list of Andrei’s publications, complete as far as we know. The contributions in this book are written by Dr. Yakovlev’s collaborators and notable statisticians including former presidents of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and of the Statistics Section of the AAAS. Dr. Yakovlev’s research appeared in four books and almost 200 scientific papers, in mathematics, statistics, biomathematics and biology journals. Ultimately this book offers a tribute to Dr. Yakovlev’s work and recognizes the legacy of his contributions in the biostatistics community.

This book commemorates the scientific contributions of distinguished statistician, Andrei Yakovlev. It reflects upon Dr. Yakovlev’s many research interests including stochastic modeling and the analysis of micro-array data, and throughout the book it emphasizes applications of the theory in biology, medicine and public health. The contributions to this volume are divided into two parts. Part A consists of original research articles, which can be roughly grouped into four thematic areas: (i) branching processes, especially as models for cell kinetics, (ii) multiple testing issues as they arise in the analysis of biologic data, (iii) applications of mathematical models and of new inferential techniques in epidemiology, and (iv) contributions to statistical methodology, with an emphasis on the modeling and analysis of survival time data. Part B consists of methodological research reported as a short communication, ending with some personal reflections on research fields associated with Andrei and on his approach to science. The Appendix contains an abbreviated vitae and a list of Andrei’s publications, complete as far as we know. The contributions in this book are written by Dr. Yakovlev’s collaborators and notable statisticians including former presidents of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and of the Statistics Section of the AAAS. Dr. Yakovlev’s research appeared in four books and almost 200 scientific papers, in mathematics, statistics, biomathematics and biology journals. Ultimately this book offers a tribute to Dr. Yakovlev’s work and recognizes the legacy of his contributions in the biostatistics community.

I Principles 1 1 Models of Systems 3 1. 1 Systems. Models. and Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1. 2 Uses of Scientific Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 1. 3 Example: Island Biogeography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1. 4 Classifications of Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 1. 5 Constraints on Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 6 Some Terminology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1. 7 Misuses of Models: The Dark Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1. 8 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2 The Modeling Process 17 2. 1 Models Are Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2. 2 Two Alternative Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. 3 An Example: Population Doubling Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. 4 Model Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2. 5 Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3 Qualitative Model Formulation 32 3. 1 How to Eat an Elephant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 3. 2 Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3. 3 Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3. 4 Errors in Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 5 Advantages and Disadvantages of Forrester Diagrams . . . . . . . . . 44 3. 6 Principles of Qualitative Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3. 7 Model Simplification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 3. 8 Other Modeling Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 viii Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3. 9 Exercises 53 4 Quantitative Model Formulation: I 4. 1 From Qualitative to Quantitative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finite Difference Equations and Differential Equations 4. 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 3 Biological Feedback in Quantitative Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 4 Example Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4. 5 Exercises 5 Quantitative Model Formulation: I1 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 1 Physical Processes 81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 2 Using the Toolbox of Biological Processes 89 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 3 Useful Functions 96 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 4 Examples 102 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5. 5 Exercises 104 6 Numerical Techniques 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 1 Mistakes Computers Make 107 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 2 Numerical Integration 110 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. 3 Numerical Instability and Stiff Equations 115 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

This book develops the mathematical tools essential for students in the life sciences to describe interacting systems and predict their behavior. From predator-prey populations in an ecosystem, to hormone regulation within the body, the natural world abounds in dynamical systems that affect us profoundly. Complex feedback relations and counter-intuitive responses are common in nature; this book develops the quantitative skills needed to explore these interactions. Differential equations are the natural mathematical tool for quantifying change, and are the driving force throughout this book. The use of Euler’s method makes nonlinear examples tractable and accessible to a broad spectrum of early-stage undergraduates, thus providing a practical alternative to the procedural approach of a traditional Calculus curriculum. Tools are developed within numerous, relevant examples, with an emphasis on the construction, evaluation, and interpretation of mathematical models throughout. Encountering these concepts in context, students learn not only quantitative techniques, but how to bridge between biological and mathematical ways of thinking. Examples range broadly, exploring the dynamics of neurons and the immune system, through to population dynamics and the Google PageRank algorithm. Each scenario relies only on an interest in the natural world; no biological expertise is assumed of student or instructor. Building on a single prerequisite of Precalculus, the book suits a two-quarter sequence for first or second year undergraduates, and meets the mathematical requirements of medical school entry. The later material provides opportunities for more advanced students in both mathematics and life sciences to revisit theoretical knowledge in a rich, real-world framework. In all cases, the focus is clear: how does the math help us understand the science?

This edited volume contains a selection of chapters that are an outgrowth of the - ropean Conference on Mathematical and Theoretical Biology (ECMTB05, Dresden, Germany, July 2005). The peer-reviewed contributions show that mathematical and computational approaches are absolutely essential for solving central problems in the life sciences, ranging from the organizational level of individual cells to the dynamics of whole populations. The contributions indicate that theoretical and mathematical biology is a diverse and interdisciplinary ?eld, ranging from experimental research linked to mathema- cal modeling to the development of more abstract mathematical frameworks in which observations about the real world can be interpreted, and with which new hypotheses for testing can be generated. Today, much attention is also paid to the development of ef?cient algorithms for complex computation and visualisation, notably in molecular biology and genetics. The ?eld of theoretical and mathematical biology and medicine has profound connections to many current problems of great relevance to society. The medical, industrial, and social interests in its development are in fact indisputable.

An introduction to the quantitative modeling of biological processes, presenting modeling approaches, methodology, practical algorithms, software tools, and examples of current research. The quantitative modeling of biological processes promises to expand biological research from a science of observation and discovery to one of rigorous prediction and quantitative analysis. The rapidly growing field of quantitative biology seeks to use biology's emerging technological and computational capabilities to model biological processes. This textbook offers an introduction to the theory, methods, and tools of quantitative biology. The book first introduces the foundations of biological modeling, focusing on some of the most widely used formalisms. It then presents essential methodology for model-guided analyses of biological data, covering such methods as network reconstruction, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design; practical algorithms and software packages for modeling biological systems; and specific examples of current quantitative biology research and related specialized methods. Most chapters offer problems, progressing from simple to complex, that test the reader's mastery of such key techniques as deterministic and stochastic simulations and data analysis. Many chapters include snippets of code that can be used to recreate analyses and generate figures related to the text. Examples are presented in the three popular computing languages: Matlab, R, and Python. A variety of online resources supplement the the text. The editors are long-time organizers of the Annual q-bio Summer School, which was founded in 2007. Through the school, the editors have helped to train more than 400 visiting students in Los Alamos, NM, Santa Fe, NM, San Diego, CA, Albuquerque, NM, and Fort Collins, CO. This book is inspired by the school's curricula, and most of the contributors have participated in the school as students, lecturers, or both. Contributors John H. Abel, Roberto Bertolusso, Daniela Besozzi, Michael L. Blinov, Clive G. Bowsher, Fiona A. Chandra, Paolo Cazzaniga, Bryan C. Daniels, Bernie J. Daigle, Jr., Maciej Dobrzynski, Jonathan P. Doye, Brian Drawert, Sean Fancer, Gareth W. Fearnley, Dirk Fey, Zachary Fox, Ramon Grima, Andreas Hellander, Stefan Hellander, David Hofmann, Damian Hernandez, William S. Hlavacek, Jianjun Huang, Tomasz Jetka, Dongya Jia, Mohit Kumar Jolly, Boris N. Kholodenko, Markek Kimmel, Michał Komorowski, Ganhui Lan, Heeseob Lee, Herbert Levine, Leslie M Loew, Jason G. Lomnitz, Ard A. Louis, Grant Lythe, Carmen Molina-París, Ion I. Moraru, Andrew Mugler, Brian Munsky, Joe Natale, Ilya Nemenman, Karol Nienałtowski, Marco S. Nobile, Maria Nowicka, Sarah Olson, Alan S. Perelson, Linda R. Petzold, Sreenivasan Ponnambalam, Arya Pourzanjani, Ruy M. Ribeiro, William Raymond, William Raymond, Herbert M. Sauro, Michael A. Savageau, Abhyudai Singh, James C. Schaff, Boris M. Slepchenko, Thomas R. Sokolowski, Petr Šulc, Andrea Tangherloni, Pieter Rein ten Wolde, Philipp Thomas, Karen Tkach Tuzman, Lev S. Tsimring, Dan Vasilescu, Margaritis Voliotis, Lisa Weber

Dynamical Systems for Biological Modeling: An Introduction prepares both biology and mathematics students with the understanding and techniques necessary to undertake basic modeling of biological systems. It achieves this through the development and analysis of dynamical systems.The approach emphasizes qualitative ideas rather than explicit computa