The aim of this paper is to show evidence and to quantify with forensic econometric methods the impact of the Value Added Tax fraud on European carbon allowances markets. This fraud mainly occurred at the beginning of between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In this paper we explore the financial mechanisms of the fraud and the impact on the market behavior as well as the reflexion on its econometric features. In a previous work, we showed that the European carbon market is strongly influenced by fundamentals factors as oil, energy, gas, coal and equity prices. Therefore, we calibrated Arbitrage Pricing Theory-like models and showed that they have a good forecast capacity. Those models enabled us to quantify the impact of each factor on the market. In this study, we focused more precisely on the benchmark contract for European carbon emissions prices over 2008 and 2009. We observed that during the first semester of 2009, there is a significant drop in our model performances and robustness and that the part of market volatility explained by fundamentals reduced. Therefore, we identified the period where the market was driven by VAT fraud movements and we were able to measure the value of this fraud. Soon after governments passed a law that cut the possibility of fraud occurrence the performance of the model improved rapidly. We estimate the impact of the VAT extortion on the carbon market at 1.7-1.9 billion euros.

Why the traditional “pledge and review” climate agreements have failed, and how carbon pricing, based on trust and reciprocity, could succeed. After twenty-five years of failure, climate negotiations continue to use a “pledge and review” approach: countries pledge (almost anything), subject to (unenforced) review. This approach ignores everything we know about human cooperation. In this book, leading economists describe an alternate model for climate agreements, drawing on the work of the late Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom and others. They show that a “common commitment” scheme is more effective than an “individual commitment” scheme; the latter depends on altruism while the former involves reciprocity (“we will if you will”). The contributors propose that global carbon pricing is the best candidate for a reciprocal common commitment in climate negotiations. Each country would commit to placing charges on carbon emissions sufficient to match an agreed global price formula. The contributors show that carbon pricing would facilitate negotiations and enforcement, improve efficiency and flexibility, and make other climate policies more effective. Additionally, they analyze the failings of the 2015 Paris climate conference. Contributors Richard N. Cooper, Peter Cramton, Ottmar Edenhofer, Christian Gollier, Éloi Laurent, David JC MacKay, William Nordhaus, Axel Ockenfels, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Steven Stoft, Jean Tirole, Martin L. Weitzman

The VAT Carousel Fraud has seriously undermined the financial integrity of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This timely book is the first to give an overview of fraud in the carbon market. Written by a former broker, it presents unique material on the carbon fraud mechanics and analyses the missing trader fraud (VAT fraud) on European carbon allowances markets with a focus on financial and organised crime issues. Fraud and Carbon Markets: The Carbon Connection assesses the weaknesses of the Kyoto Protocol and environmental markets, using statistics as a forensic tool on the capital markets. It describes specific cases, the court investigations and various mechanisms. It addresses issues of money laundering and international fraud on capital markets, such as stock manipulation, by exploring the financial mechanisms of the fraud, their impact on the market behaviour and the consequences on their econometric features. Researchers and students in climate change policy, environmental finance, financial law, organised crime, forensic statistics, financial regulation and risk management as well as financial regulators and policy makers will find this book of great interest.

Serving as an introduction to one of the "hottest" topics in financial crime, the Value Added Tax (VAT) fraud, this new and original book aims to analyze and decrypt the fraud and explore multi-disciplinary avenues, thereby exposing nuances and shades that remain concealed by traditional taxation oriented researches. Quantifying the impact of the fraud on the real economy underlines the structural damages propagated by this crime in the European Union. The ‘fruadsters’ benefit when policy changes are inflicted in an economic space without a fully fledged legal framework. Geopolitical events like the creation of the Eurasian Union and 'Brexit' are analyzed from the perspective of the VAT fraud, thereby underlining the foreseeable risks of such historical turnarounds. In addition, this book also provides a unique collection of case studies that depict the main characteristics of VAT fraud. Introduction to VAT Fraud will be of interest to students at an advanced level, academics and reflective practitioners. It addresses the topics with regards to banking and finance law, international law, criminal law, taxation, accounting, and financial crime. It will be of value to researchers, academics, professionals, and students in the fields of law, financial crime, technology, accounting and taxation.

Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.

The Second Edition of this best-selling book expands its advanced approach to financial risk models by covering market, credit, and integrated risk. With new data that cover the recent financial crisis, it combines Excel-based empirical exercises at the end of each chapter with online exercises so readers can use their own data. Its unified GARCH modeling approach, empirically sophisticated and relevant yet easy to implement, sets this book apart from others. Five new chapters and updated end-of-chapter questions and exercises, as well as Excel-solutions manual, support its step-by-step approach to choosing tools and solving problems. Examines market risk, credit risk, and operational risk Provides exceptional coverage of GARCH models Features online Excel-based empirical exercises

Upsetting the Offset engages critically with the political economy of carbon markets. It presents a range of case studies and critiques from around the world, showing how the scam of carbon markets affects the lives of communities. But the book doesn't stop there. It also presents a number of alternatives to carbon markets which enable communities to live in real low-carbon futures.