The study of disaster statistics and disaster occurrence is a complicated interdisciplinary field involving the interplay of new theoretical findings from several scientific fields like mathematics, physics, and computer science. Statistical studies on the mode of occurrence of natural disasters largely rely on fundamental findings in the statistics of rare events, which were derived in the 20th century. With regard to natural disasters, it is not so much the fact that the importance of this problem for mankind was recognized during the last third of the 20th century - the myths one encounters in ancient civilizations show that the problem of disasters has always been recognized - rather, it is the fact that mankind now possesses the necessary theoretical and practical tools to effectively study natural disasters, which in turn supports effective, major practical measures to minimize their impact. All the above factors have resulted in considerable progress in natural disaster research. Substantial accrued material on natural disasters and the use of advanced recording techniques have opened new doors for empirical analysis. However, despite the considerable progress made, the situation is still far from ideal. Sufficiently complete catalogs of events are still not available for many types of disasters, and the methodological and even terminological bases of research need to be further developed and standardized. The present monograph summarizes recent advances in the field of disaster statistics, primarily focusing on the occurrence of disasters that can be described by distributions with heavy tails. These disasters typically occur on a very broad range of scales, the rare greatest events being capable of causing losses comparable to the total losses of all smaller disasters of the same type. Audience: This SpringerBrief will be a valuable resource for those working in the fields of natural disaster research, risk assessment and loss mitigation at regional and federal governing bodies and in the insurance business, as well as for a broad range of readers interested in problems concerning natural disasters and their effects on human life.

Mathematically, natural disasters of all types are characterized by heavy tailed distributions. The analysis of such distributions with common methods, such as averages and dispersions, can therefore lead to erroneous conclusions. The statistical methods described in this book avoid such pitfalls. Seismic disasters are studied, primarily thanks to the availability of an ample statistical database. New approaches are presented to seismic risk estimation and forecasting the damage caused by earthquakes, ranging from typical, moderate events to very rare, extreme disasters. Analysis of these latter events is based on the limit theorems of probability and the duality of the generalized Pareto distribution and generalized extreme value distribution. It is shown that the parameter most widely used to estimate seismic risk – Mmax, the maximum possible earthquake value – is potentially non-robust. Robust analogues of this parameter are suggested and calculated for some seismic catalogues. Trends in the costs inferred by damage from natural disasters as related to changing social and economic situations are examined for different regions. The results obtained argue for sustainable development, whereas entirely different, incorrect conclusions can be drawn if the specific properties of the heavy-tailed distribution and change in completeness of data on natural hazards are neglected. This pioneering work is directed at risk assessment specialists in general, seismologists, administrators and all those interested in natural disasters and their impact on society.

This book explores economic concepts related to disaster losses, describes mechanisms that determine the economic consequences of a disaster, and reviews methodologies for making decisions regarding risk management and adaptation. The author addresses the need for better understanding of the consequences of disasters and reviews and analyzes three scientific debates on linkage between disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The first involves the existence and magnitude of long-term economic impact of natural disasters on development. The second is the disagreement over whether any development is the proper solution to high vulnerability to disaster risk. The third debate involves the difficulty of drawing connections between natural disasters and climate change and the challenge in managing them through an integrated strategy. The introduction describes economic views of disaster, including direct and indirect costs, output and welfare losses, and use of econometric tools to measure losses. The next section defines disaster risk, delineates between “good” and “bad” risk-taking, and discusses a pathway to balanced growth. A section entitled “Trends in Hazards and the Role of Climate Change” sets scenarios for climate change analysis, discusses statistical and physical models for downscaling global climate scenarios to extreme event scenarios, and considers how to consider extremes of hot and cold, storms, wind, drought and flood. Another section analyzes case studies on hurricanes and the US coastline; sea-level rises and storm surge in Copenhagen; and heavy precipitation in Mumbai. A section on Methodologies for disaster risk management includes a study on cost-benefit analysis of coastal protections in New Orleans, and one on early-warning systems in developing countries. The next section outlines decision-making in disaster risk management, including robust decision-making, No-regret and No-risk strategies; and strategies that reduce time horizons for decision-making. Among the conclusions is the assertion that risk management policies must recognize the benefits of risk-taking and avoid suppressing it entirely. The main message is that a combination of disaster-risk-reduction, resilience-building and adaptation policies can yield large potential gains and synergies.

This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.

Disasters are increasing in frequency throughout the world. In 2015 in the United States, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recorded a total of 70 natural disasters with 43 of those receiving major disaster declarations. In contrast, 13 major disasters were declared in 1953. As a result, the costs and other complex issues associated with mitigation efforts of disasters is drawing increased attention from economists, insurers, and policymakers. Brusentsev and Vroman address six key disaster-related questions: 1. What do we know about disasters in the United States? 2. Has there been an increase in their frequency? 3. What are the financial costs associated with disasters? 4. What compensation, including social assistance, is available to survivors? 5. Where is each type of disaster likely to occur? 6. How can disasters be mitigated? Their statistical analysis shows that declarations of disasters has increased at a rate much faster that the rate of population growth, that disaster risks of climate change tend to be concentrated in urban areas, and that there is a statistically significant association between disasters and the increase in global temperature.

We in the United States have almost come to accept natural disasters as part of our nation's social fabric. News of property damage, economic and social disruption, and injuries follow earthquakes, fires, floods and hurricanes. Surprisingly, however, the total losses that follow these natural disasters are not consistently calculated. We have no formal system in either the public or private sector for compiling this information. The National Academies recommends what types of data should be assembled and tracked.

Systematically expresses the temporal and spatial patterns of natural disasters, the hazard-formative environment, hazard-affected bodies and hazard-formative factors.