While many books talk about forecasting and decision making, this one is particularly engaging because of Kenneth A. Posner's personal experience - and the honesty with which he discusses it. As a longtime analyst at Morgan Stanley, Posner had to make decisions about whether to invest in many recent high-profile, high-stakes "Black Swan" anomalies. He explains general models and approaches to dealing with uncertainty, sorting information, and developing your analytical skills and judgment. That alone is worthwhile, but the book is especially lively when Posner reviews his specific decisions. He shares his reasoning and exposes his successes and his failures to public view. The result is a knowledge-dense but very readable work that getAbstract recommends to all analysts, but also to those who want to deal with information overload and improve their decision making.

When Priscilla Harradine travels back to England on the Centaur she has no cause to expect her journey will be remotely eventful. But also on board is Charles de Bernis - a mysterious and intriguing buccaneer. Just as their friendship blossoms, a dark figure from de Bernis' past emerges to propel them into a thrilling and perilous adventure.

Tracing the life and work of Rod Giblett, a leading local wetland conservationist, environmental activist and pioneer transdisciplinary researcher and writer of fiction and non-fiction, Black Swan Song weaves together memoir, essay, story, and criticism. It provides ways of living and being with the earth in dark and troubled times.

Finalist for the 2016 Foreword INDIES Book of the Year Award in the Sports category Have you ever considered running 350 miles in nine days? Kenneth A. Posner did just that when he completed a record-setting run along New York's Long Path, a 350-mile hiking trail that stretches from New York City to Albany. Running the Long Path's page-turning narrative combines the thrill and challenges of Posner's extreme endurance feat with the stunning natural beauty and deep historical significance of New York's Hudson Valley. A one-time casual runner, Posner shares his excitement of developing into a trail-runner and eventually an ultrarunner, as well as the pursuit of a "fastest known time"—a new dimension of extreme trail running, where some of the sport's fastest and most experienced athletes vie to set new speed records for important trails. Hikers, walkers, and runners will appreciate his detailed descriptions of planning, pacing, gear selection, nutrition, hydration, and navigation, which will help them prepare for their own adventures on the trails. Interspersed with the running adventure, Posner relates the interesting stories of the Long Path and the places it passes through, which include some of New York's most important parks and preserves and the distinctive mountains and forests they protect. Throughout the book, he channels the voices of famous New Yorkers associated with the Long Path—Walt Whitman, John Burroughs, Theodore Roosevelt, and Raymond Torrey—who express their appreciation of the natural beauty of the region. Running the Long Path is the story of what ordinary people can accomplish with a little determination and a lot of grit. Whether you walk or run, you will find inspiration in Posner's tale.

Do you want more free book summaries like this? Download our app for free at https://www.QuickRead.com/App and get access to hundreds of free book and audiobook summaries. The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Just because you haven’t seen something doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, right? Well, Nassim Nicholas Taleb uses this exact logic to explain the Black Swans that happen in our society. A Black Swan is an improbable or highly unlikely event that has three principal characteristics. The first two are that it is unpredictable and it carries a massive impact. The third is the ability to construct an explanation after the fact to make it appear less random, and more predictable. Think of events like 9/11 or the invention of Google. These Black Swans, while unpredictable and impactful, could easily be explained in the moments following the event. Black Swans like these underlie almost everything about the world. But why can’t we acknowledge them until after they occur? Well, according to Taleb, humans are simply hardwired to focus on the details rather than see the big picture. We concentrate only on what we know and understand; therefore, we are unable to conceptualize the impossible. As you read, you’ll learn that we can learn a thing or two from turkeys, you'll see how a casino's greatest threat isn't high-rolling gamblers, and how focusing on what we don't know is critical for making informed decisions.